This study uses the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescents (Add Health) data, a nationally representative sample of adolescents, to disentangle the relationship between child maltreatment and violent delinquency. Also examined are potential moderating effects of gender, socioeconomic status (SES), and religiosity on the association between…

Diagnosis of misconceptions or "bugs" in procedural skills is difficult because of their unstable nature. This study addresses this problem by proposing and evaluating a probability-based approach to the diagnosis of bugs in children's multicolumn subtraction performance using Bayesian networks. This approach assumes a causal network relating…

The present paper determines whether community college transfer students have higher baccalaureate rates when they enroll in four-year colleges and departments that have larger shares of transfer students. Transfers attending non-technical campuses with larger shares of transfers have higher eight-year baccalaureate rates, but within-campus…

This research shows that the motivation to posses a desired characteristic (or to avoid an undesired one) results in self-perceptions that guide people's use of base rate in the Lawyer-Engineer problem (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973). In four studies, participants induced to believe (or recall, Exp. 2) that a rational cognitive style is…

Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

Because of response disturbances such as guessing, cheating, or carelessness, item response models often can only approximate the "true" individual response probabilities. As a consequence, maximum-likelihood estimates of ability will be biased. Typically, the nature and extent to which response disturbances are present is unknown, and, therefore,…

This article sets out some of the rationale and arguments for making major changes to the teaching and learning of statistical inference in introductory courses at our universities by changing from a norm-based, mathematical approach to more conceptually accessible computer-based approaches. The core problem of the inferential argument with its…

Despite the concern that student plagiarism has become increasingly common, there is relatively little objective data on the prevalence or determinants of this illicit behavior. This study presents the results of a natural field experiment designed to address these questions. Over 1,200 papers were collected from the students in undergraduate…

We consider the expected range of a random sample of points chosen from the interval [0, 1] according to some probability distribution. We then use the notion of convexity to derive an upper bound for this expected range which is valid for all possible choices of this distribution. Finally we show that there is only one distribution for which this…

A central puzzle for theories of choice is that people's preferences between options can be reversed by the presence of decoy options (that are not chosen) or by the presence of other irrelevant options added to the choice set. Three types of reversal effect reported in the decision-making literature, the attraction, compromise, and similarity…

The nonequivalent groups with anchor test (NEAT) design involves missing data that are missing by design. Three equating methods that can be used with a NEAT design are the frequency estimation equipercentile equating method, the chain equipercentile equating method, and the item-response-theory observed-score-equating method. We suggest an…

Testlet effects can be taken into account by incorporating specific dimensions in addition to the general dimension into the item response theory model. Three such multidimensional models are described: the bi-factor model, the testlet model, and a second-order model. It is shown how the second-order model is formally equivalent to the testlet…

This article develops a parsimonious descriptive model of individual choice and valuation in the kinds of experiments that constitute a substantial part of the literature relating to decision making under risk and uncertainty. It suggests that many of the best known "regularities" observed in those experiments may arise from a tendency for…

Using a multistate sample of marriages that took place in the 1990s, this study examined associations between premarital cohabitation history and marital quality in first (N = 437) and second marriages (N = 200) and marital instability in first marriages (intact N = 521, divorced N = 124). For first marriages, cohabiting with the spouse without…

We present a simple card game whose payout depends on a player's strategy, as well as on chance. Solutions require the use of conditional analysis and the computation of expected values.