Four pigeons were trained on two-key concurrent variable-interval schedules with no changeover delay. In Phase 1, relative reinforcers on the two alternatives were varied over five conditions from 0.1 to 0.9. In Phases 2 and 3, we instituted a molar feedback function between relative choice in an interreinforcer interval and the probability of…

"t"-Tests are widely used by researchers to compare the average values of a numeric outcome between two groups. If there are doubts about the suitability of the data for the requirements of a "t"-test, most notably the distribution being non-normal, the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test may be used instead. However, although often…

The conjunction fallacy has been cited as a classic example of the automatic contextualisation of problems. In two experiments we compared the performance of autistic and typically developing adolescents on a set of conjunction fallacy tasks. Participants with autism were less susceptible to the conjunction fallacy. Experiment 2 also demonstrated…

We present a quantum analysis of two-mode single-photon states based on the probability distributions of the optical field strength (or position quadrature) in order to describe their quantum polarization characteristics, where polarization is understood as a significative confinement of the optical field-strength values on determined regions of…

Decision-making is central to human cognition. Fundamental to every decision is the ability to internally represent the available choices and their relative costs and benefits. The most basic and frequent decisions we make occur as our motor system chooses and executes only those actions that achieve our current goals. Although these interactions…

Using sequences of coin flips as a model of serial independent events, we asked schoolchildren in grades 1 through 5 to estimate the likelihood of the next flip. Most children in each grade expected short patterns to continue.

In the context of existing "quantitative"/"qualitative" schisms, this paper briefly reminds readers of the current practice of testing for statistical significance in social science research. This practice is based on a widespread confusion between two conditional probabilities. A worked example and other elements of logical argument demonstrate…

Finding an object in our environment is an important human ability that also represents a critical component of human foraging behavior. One type of information that aids efficient large-scale search is the likelihood of the object being in one location over another. In this study we investigated the conditions under which individuals respond to…

People appear to be unrealistically optimistic about their future prospects, as reflected by theory and research in the fields of psychology, organizational behavior, behavioral economics, and behavioral finance. Many real-world examples (e.g., consumer behavior during economic recessions), however, suggest that people are not always overly…

We study the relationship between parental job loss and children's academic achievement using data on job loss and grade retention from the 1996, 2001, and 2004 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation. We find that a parental job loss increases the probability of children's grade retention by 0.8 percentage points, or around 15…

Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association (AERA) in April 2009. Compares results of different approaches to propensity-score matching with hierarchical data.

We consider how probability theory can be used to increase one's chances of winning in the new television game show "The Colour of Money."

When two sealed envelopes contain money, one twice as much as the other, a player should be indifferent between them. But when one envelope is opened, one's decision should vary as a function of the observed value and one's subjective probabilities.

This article suggests how to explain a problem of small sample size when considering correlation between two Normal variables. Two techniques are shown: one based on graphs and the other on simulation. (Contains 3 figures and 1 table.)

This article demonstrates that the variance of three or four observations can be expressed in terms of the range and the first order differences of the observations. A more general result, which holds for any number of observations, is also stated.