Numeracy--that is, how facile people are with mathematical concepts and their applications--is gaining importance in medical decision making and risk communication. This article proposes six critical functions of health numeracy. These functions are integrated into a theoretical framework on health numeracy that has implications for risk…

Subjective expected relative similarity (SERS) is a descriptive theory that explains cooperation levels in single-step prisoner's dilemma (PD) games. SERS predicts that individuals cooperate whenever their "subjectively perceived similarity" with their opponent exceeds a situational index, namely the game's "similarity threshold." A thought…

Two diverging hypotheses concerning the influence of surprising events on hindsight effects have been proposed: Although some authors believe that surprising events lead to a reversal of hindsight bias, others have proposed that surprise increases hindsight bias. Drawing on the separate-components view of the hindsight bias (which argues that…

The Statistics Online Computational Resource (http://www.SOCR.ucla.edu) provides one of the largest collections of free Internet-based resources for probability and statistics education. SOCR develops, validates and disseminates two core types of materials--instructional resources and computational libraries. (Contains 2 figures.)

Numerous recent studies suggest that human learners, including both infants and adults, readily track sequential statistics computed between adjacent elements. One such statistic, transitional probability, is typically calculated as the likelihood that one element predicts another. However, little is known about whether listeners are sensitive to…

The present study explored the delay discounting of future and past monetary rewards by pathological gamblers. Using a multiple baseline design, following repeated exposure to choices between smaller immediate and larger delayed consequences, participants completed a relational responding task that attempted to alter the psychological functions of…

Comparisons of results from descriptive and functional analyses of problem behavior generally have shown poor correspondence. Most descriptive analyses have focused on relations between consequent events and behavior, and it has been noted that attention is a common consequence for problem behavior even though it may not be a functional…

Distinguishing trajectories of criminal offending over the life course, especially the prediction of high-rate offenders, has received considerable attention over the past two decades. Motivated by a recent study by Sampson and Laub (2003), this study uses longitudinal data on conviction histories from the Dutch Criminal Career and Life-Course…

The older one gets, the more one's life expectancy exceeds the population's given expectancy (at birth). Yet longevity is finite. This apparent paradox is analysed probabilistically with reference to empirical demographic data.

The few studies that have examined associations between measured interests and abilities have suffered from small sample sizes, restricted ranges of ability and background, preconceived groupings of interests, and measures of ability that confound general and specific cognitive abilities. In this study of 425 adults from diverse backgrounds, the…

Null hypotheses are simple, precise, and theoretically important. Conventional statistical analysis cannot support them; Bayesian analysis can. The challenge in a Bayesian analysis is to formulate a suitably vague alternative, because the vaguer the alternative is (the more it spreads out the unit mass of prior probability), the more the null is…

We propose the development of a "population" of high-quality assessment tasks that cover the performance goals set out in the "Common Core State Standards for Mathematics." The population will be published. Tests are drawn from this population as a structured random sample guided by a "balancing algorithm."

College departure involves multiple mobility patterns that include lateral transfer (from a four-year to another four-year institution), reverse transfer (from a four-year to a two-year institution), and stop out (taking time out of higher education altogether). This study addresses how financial aid influences the likelihood of such mobility…

A major problem facing educators in the United States is how to determine when the nation's five million English language learners (ELL) are ready to exit language-learning programs, i.e. to be "reclassified" as fluent English proficient (R-FEP) and placed in mainstream classrooms without additional language support. No Child Left Behind…

This report describes the implementation and intermediate impacts of an intervention designed to provide incentives to induce a school district's highest-performing teachers to work in its lowest-achieving schools to improve student achievement. The report is part of a larger study that used random assignment to form equivalent groups of…