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Peer reviewedJohnson-Laird, P. N.; Legrenzi, Paolo; Girotto, Vittorio; Legrenzi, Maria Sonino; Caverni, Jean-Paul – Psychological Review, 1999
Outlines a theory of naive probability in which individuals who are unfamiliar with the probability calculus can infer the probabilities of events in an "extensional" way. The theory accommodates reasoning based on numerical premises, and explains how naive reasoners can infer posterior probabilities without relying on Bayes's theorem.…
Descriptors: Beliefs, Critical Thinking, Intuition, Probability
Peer reviewedVos, Hans J. – Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 1999
Formulates optimal sequential rules for mastery testing using an approach derived from Bayesian sequential decision theory to consider both threshold and linear loss structures. Adopts the binomial probability distribution as the psychometric model. Provides an empirical example for concept-learning in medicine. (SLD)
Descriptors: Bayesian Statistics, Equations (Mathematics), Mastery Tests, Probability
Peer reviewedBurrell, Quentin L. – Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 2002
A recently proposed stochastic model to describe the citation process in the presence of obsolescence is used to answer the question: If a paper has not been cited by a certain time after its publication, what is the probability that it will ever be cited? A proof of the theorem is appended. (Author/LRW)
Descriptors: Citations (References), Mathematical Formulas, Models, Obsolescence
Peer reviewedMeulders, Michel; De Boeck, Paul; Van Mechelen, Iven; Gelman, Andrew; Maris, Eric – Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 2001
Presents a fully Bayesian analysis for the Probability Matrix Decomposition (PMD) model using the Gibbs sampler. Identifies the advantages of this approach and illustrates the approach by applying the PMD model to opinions of respondents from different countries concerning the possibility of contracting AIDS in a specific situation. (SLD)
Descriptors: Bayesian Statistics, Matrices, Probability, Psychometrics
Peer reviewedAlgina, James; Moulder, Bradley C. – Educational and Psychological Measurement, 2001
Studied sample sizes for confidence intervals on the increase in the squared multiple correlation coefficient using simulation. Discusses predictors and actual coverage probability and provides sample-size guidelines for probability coverage to be near the nominal confidence interval. (SLD)
Descriptors: Correlation, Effect Size, Probability, Sample Size
Peer reviewedAltonji, Joseph G.; Elder, Todd E.; Taber, Christopher R. – Journal of Political Economy, 2005
In this paper we measure the effect of Catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores. Because we do not have a good instrumental variable for Catholic school attendance, we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to…
Descriptors: Probability, Educational Attainment, Catholics, Attendance
Peer reviewedAkkerman, Abraham – Social Indicators Research, 2005
Cross-sectional data, such as Census statistics, enable the re-enactment of household lifecourse through the construction of the household composition matrix, a tabulation of persons in households by their age and by the age of their corresponding household-heads. Household lifecourse is represented in the household composition matrix somewhat…
Descriptors: Probability, Housing, Demography, Family (Sociological Unit)
Direct linkLustig, C.; Meck, W.H. – Brain and Cognition, 2005
Normal participants (n=5) having no experience with antipsychotic drugs and medicated participants (n=5) with clinical experience with chronic low doses of haloperidol (3-10mg/day for 2-4 months) in the treatment of neuroses were evaluated for the effects of inter-trial interval (ITI) feedback on a discrete-trials peak-interval timing procedure.…
Descriptors: Probability, Memory, Intervals, Feedback
Ching, Wai-Ki; Ng, Michael K. – International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology, 2004
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used in bioinformatics, speech recognition and many other areas. This note presents HMMs via the framework of classical Markov chain models. A simple example is given to illustrate the model. An estimation method for the transition probabilities of the hidden states is also discussed.
Descriptors: Markov Processes, Probability, Mathematical Models, Computation
Cockram, J. – Journal of Intellectual Disability Research, 2005
This paper reports results from a total population of persons with intellectual disabilities (ID) in Western Australia arrested for the first time since 1 April 1984. It is part of a longitudinal study that "tracked" offenders with ID through the criminal justice system over an 11-year period to compare their experiences at each stage of…
Descriptors: Foreign Countries, Probability, Police, Justice
Farnsworth, David L. – Teaching Statistics: An International Journal for Teachers, 2004
This article describes the most compact 100c% interval for a probability density for 0
Descriptors: Probability, Computation, Mathematical Concepts, Statistics
Kinney, John J. – Teaching Statistics: An International Journal for Teachers, 2005
This article gives a method of finding discrete approximations to continuous probability density functions and shows examples of its use, allowing students without calculus access to the calculation of means and variances.
Descriptors: Probability, Calculus, Statistical Analysis, Mathematics
Stockall, Linnaea; Stringfellow, Andrew; Marantz, Alec – Brain and Language, 2004
Visually presented letter strings consistently yield three MEG response components: the M170, associated with letter-string processing (Tarkiainen, Helenius, Hansen, Cornelissen, & Salmelin, 1999); the M250, affected by phonotactic probability, (Pylkkanen, Stringfellow, & Marantz, 2002); and the M350, responsive to lexical frequency (Embick,…
Descriptors: Language Processing, Brain, Measurement, Reaction Time
Mandel, David R. – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 2005
Four experiments examined 3 types of violations of coherence criteria in risk assessments of a terrorist attack. First, the requirement that extensionally equivalent descriptions be assigned the same probability (i.e., additivity) was violated. Unpacking descriptions of an attack into subtypes led to an increase in assessed risk. Second,…
Descriptors: Evaluation Methods, Terrorism, Risk, Probability
Lee, Michael D.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan – Psychological Review, 2005
This paper comments on the response offered by Trafimow on Lee and Wagenmakers comments on Trafimow's original article. It seems our comment should have made it clear that the objective Bayesian approach we advocate views probabilities neither as relative frequencies nor as belief states, but as degrees of plausibility assigned to propositions in…
Descriptors: Researchers, Probability, Statistical Inference, Bayesian Statistics
