Transitions are critical times for both teachers and students. Efficient between-task and within-task transitions can greatly improve academic learning time. The purpose of this article was to review one intervention, high-probability (high-p) task sequences, as a method to promote more effective transitions. High-p sequences involve presenting a…

The recognition heuristic is a prime example of a boundedly rational mind tool that rests on an evolved capacity, recognition, and exploits environmental structures. When originally proposed, it was conjectured that no other probabilistic cue reverses the recognition-based inference (D. G. Goldstein & G. Gigerenzer, 2002). More recent studies…

A special but common type of scenario is one in which a company has a promotion that is designed to make the customer purchase more of their product than they otherwise might. Although this can be aimed specifically at children, it really applies to all persons. The basic premise is that the company issues a "set" of different items or…

The author derives the probability that price discrimination improves social welfare, using a simple model of third-degree price discrimination assuming two independent linear demands. The probability that price discrimination raises social welfare increases as the preferences or incomes of consumer groups become more heterogeneous. He derives the…

Despite its intuitive appeal and popularity, Thorndike's constant ratio (CR) model for unbiased selection is inherently inconsistent in "n"-free selection. Satisfaction of the condition for unbiased selection, when formulated in terms of success/acceptance probabilities, usually precludes satisfaction by the converse probabilities of…

The multiple segment factorial vignette design (MSFV) combines elements of experimental designs and probability sampling with the inductive, exploratory approach of qualitative research. MSFVs allow researchers to investigate topics that may be hard to study because of ethical or logistical concerns. Participants are presented with short stories…

We present a theory of decision by sampling (DbS) in which, in contrast with traditional models, there are no underlying psychoeconomic scales. Instead, we assume that an attribute's subjective value is constructed from a series of binary, ordinal comparisons to a sample of attribute values drawn from memory and is its rank within the sample. We…

Prominent views of implicit priming agree that repetition of category exemplars should increase the probability of the exemplar coming to mind on a category production test. This prediction has been borne out in the data of numerous experiments that have used relatively high-frequency exemplars, but experiments that have used lower frequency…

Accurate and accessible expressions for the probability of having a matching birthday are obtained by using Stirling's formula and Taylor series. For interest, the results are applied to the planets of our solar system.

A truncated version of the Cauchy distribution is introduced. Unlike the Cauchy distribution, this possesses finite moments of all orders and could therefore be a better model for certain practical situations. One such situation in finance is discussed. Explicit expressions for the moments of the truncated distribution are also derived.

The present series of 4 experiments investigated the probability of responding in accord with equivalence in adult human participants as a function of increasing or decreasing delays in a many-to-one (MTO) or comparison-as-node and one-to-many (OTM) or sample-as-node conditional discrimination procedure. In Experiment 1, 12 participants started…

The Behrens-Fisher problem arises when one seeks to make inferences about the means of two normal populations without assuming the variances are equal. This paper presents a review of fundamental concepts and applications used to address the Behrens-Fisher problem under fiducial, Bayesian, and frequentist approaches. Methods of approximations to…

The best check on the preposterous claims of crisis rhetoric is an appreciation of the nature of risk analysis and how it functions in argumentation. The use of risk analysis is common in policy debate. While the stock issues paradigm focused the debate exclusively on the affirmative case, the advent of policy systems analysis has transformed…

Basic issues in understanding Item Response Theory (IRT), or Latent Trait Theory, measurement models are discussed. These theories have gained popularity because of their promise to provide greater precision and control in measurement involving both achievement and attitude instruments. IRT models implement probabilistic techniques that yield…

It is shown that common factors are not subject to indeterminancy to the extent that has been claimed (Guttman, 1955), because the measure of indeterminancy that has been adopted is ill-founded. (Author/RC)