The status of three basic concepts of probability--points of a finite sample space, probability of a simple event in a finite sample space, and quantification of probabilities--possessed by children in grades four through seven was examined. A test for each of the three concepts was constructed by the author and administered to a total of 528…

A test bias definition, applicable at the item-level of a test is presented. The definition conceptually equates test bias with measuring different things in different groups, and operationally equates test bias with a difference in item fit to the Rasch Model, greater than one, between groups. It is suggested that the proposed definition avoids…

A formula estimating the number of misprints in a text which escape both of a pair of proof readers is developed using the principle of inclusion-exclusion. (SD)

Investigates the Tukey statistic for the empirical probability of a Type II error under numerous parametric specifications defined by Cohen (1969) as being representative of behavioral research data. For unequal numbers of observations per treatment group and for unequal population variancies, the Tukey test was simulated when sampling from a…

Describes a computer program for calculating the power of the F-test. Approach is based upon two independent approximations-- a normalization of the non-central F distribution and an integration of the normal distribution. Comparison of the calculated values of power with exact values revealed a high degree of accuracy. (Author/RC)

Describes a psychology experiment that investigated the effect of ambiguity on human decision-making behavior. (Available from Behavioral Science, University of Louisville, P.O. Box 1055, Louisville, KY 40201; $3.50 single copy.) (JG)

Two mathematical brainteasers, with solutions depending on involved trial-and-error processes, are shown to have ingenious solutions. (MP)

The application of mathematics, especially probability theory to law and social decision theory, is discussed. (SD)

The asymptotic power of the Cramer-von Mises test when parameters are estimated from the data is studied under certain local (contiguous) alternatives. Notion of (asymptotic) direction and distance from the null hypothesis of alternatives is introduced, and it is shown that there exist directions with maximum, minimum, and arbitrary intermediate…

Drawing a probability sample of homeless adults in Los Angeles' Skid Row resulted in a sampling design meeting statistical criteria. The design uses data from meal centers, bed counts, and outdoor congregations; and allows unbiased estimates of prevalence of mental disorders and assessment of service needs of the homeless. (TJH)

Simple, classroom-tested probability activities that capture students' interest, develop critical thinking skills, and reinforce addition facts are suggested. All activities involve investigating the probabilities of the sums that come up when two dice are tossed. (MT)

Judgments under uncertainty are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are not bound by the conjunction rule of probability. Representativeness and availability heuristics can make a conjunction appear more probable than one of its constituents. Alternative interpretations of this conjunction fallacy are discussed and attempts to combat it…

The concept of statistical significance is explained, with specific numerical illustrations. (MNS)

A rudimentary description of Markov Chains is presented in order to introduce its use to describe and to predict authors' movements among subareas of the discipline of ethnomusicology. Other possible applications are suggested. (Author)

Making use of statistical analytical methods, the authors examine the systematic tendency toward disappointment that results from decision making generally and argue that such disappointment is built in structurally to the process of decision making itself. (Author/JBM)