Courses in clinical epidemiology usually include acquainting students with a single 2X2 table. All diagnostic test characteristics are explained using this table. This pedagogic approach may be misleading. A new didactic approach is hereby proposed, using two tables, each with specific analogous notations (uppercase and lowercase) and derived…

The treatment of uncertainty in the business classroom has been dominated by the application of risk theory to the utility-maximization framework. Nonetheless, the relevance of the standard risk model as a positive description of economic decision making often has been called into question in theoretical work. In this article, the authors offer an…

An activity using a game-related setting is presented for students to investigate probability and statistics.

In Experiment 1 with rats, a left lever press led to a 5-s delay and then a possible reinforcer. A right lever press led to an adjusting delay and then a certain reinforcer. This delay was adjusted over trials to estimate an indifference point, or a delay at which the two alternatives were chosen about equally often. Indifference points increased…

In Experiment 1, 10 pigeons were exposed to a successive symbolic matching-to-sample procedure in which the sample was generated by the pigeons' own behavior. Each trial began with both response keys illuminated white, one being the "correct" key and the other the "incorrect" key. The pigeons had no way of discriminating which key was correct and…

Consider the series [image omitted] where the value of each a[subscript n] is determined by the flip of a coin: heads on the "n"th toss will mean that a[subscript n] =1 and tails that a[subscript n] = -1. Assuming that the coin is "fair," what is the probability that this "harmonic-like" series converges? After a moment's thought, many people…

We focus on the problem of ignoring statistical independence. A binomial experiment is used to determine whether judges could match, based on looks alone, dogs to their owners. The experimental design introduces dependencies such that the probability of a given judge correctly matching a dog and an owner changes from trial to trial. We show how…

This note considers functions of two variables which are continuous on a possibly unbounded closed region in [vertical bar]R[squared], and the functions of one variable obtained by integrating out the other variable over this region. The question of continuity of these functions is investigated, as are connections with joint density and marginal…

Stock car racing has seen tremendous growth in popularity in recent years. We introduce two datasets containing results from all Winston Cup races between 1975 and 2003, inclusive. Students can use any number of statistical methods and applications of basic probability on the data to answer a wide range of practical questions. Instructors and…

A generally-educated individual should have some insight into how decisions are made in the very wide range of fields that employ statistical and probabilistic reasoning. Also, students of introductory probability and statistics are often best motivated by specific applications rather than by theory and mathematical development, because most…

Under the suppositional account of conditionals, when people think about a conditional assertion, "if p then q," they engage in a mental simulation in which they imagine p holds and evaluate the probability that q holds under this supposition. One implication of this account is that belief in a conditional equates to conditional probability…

This note introduces an interesting random walk on a straight path with cards of random numbers. The method of recurrent relations is used to obtain the convergent probability of the random walk with different initial positions.

In the discourse surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, extreme criticisms of Israel (e.g., Israel is an apartheid state, the Israel Defense Forces deliberately target Palestinian civilians), coupled with extreme policy proposals (e.g., boycott of Israeli academics and institutions, divest from companies doing business with Israel), have…

This paper describes a set of simulations which explore the way different features of lexical organisation affect the probability of finding a pair of associated words in a set of five randomly selected words. The simulation is equivalent to giving Ss a set of five words and asking if they can identify a pair of associated words among them. The…

Low-achieving students in many school districts are retained in a grade in order to allow them to gain the academic or social skills that teachers believe are necessary to succeed academically. This practice is highly controversial, with many researchers claiming that it leads to higher dropout rates although selection issues have complicated…