Implications of the no-news no-change approach and student perceptions extends beyond the Monty Hall problem to two other situations in which the underlying concepts are similar.

In 3 studies, participants viewed sequences of multiattribute objects (e.g., colored shapes) appearing with varying frequencies and judged the likelihood of the attributes of those objects. Judged probabilities reflected a compromise between (a) the frequency with which each attribute appeared and (b) the ignorance prior probability cued by the…

Delivering high-probability (high-p) request sequences is an effective method to increase compliance across settings. To date, researchers have used frequency of compliance and latency to initiate low-probability (low-p) requests to document these effects. Both measures focus on events just prior to and during the low-p task. In these two studies…

This report presents results of the 2011 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) in mathematics at grades 4 and 8. Nationally representative samples of 209,000 fourth-graders and 175,200 eighth-graders participated in the 2011 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) in mathematics. At each grade, students responded to…

Social scientists have repeatedly demonstrated that individuals tend to underutilize base-rate information in favor of case-specific information in problems investigating subjective probability estimation. Despite the pervasiveness of this base-rate fallacy, little progress has been made in establishing a definitive explanation for its cause. This…

Methods of determining probabilities of various outcomes of the game Yahtzee are described. (SD)

The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the results obtained by Knowles et al. were a result of varying levels of redundancy or varying levels of other task parameters. (Author)

The purpose of the study was to determine whether students had knowledge of the extension rule (the conjunction of two or more events cannot be greater than the probability of any one of those events) and understanding of conjunction by giving a test of multiplicative probabilities. Involved were 598 students enrolled in introductory psychology…

The random variable p and its functions figure in several "tests of combined significance," meta-analysis summaries based on sample significance values, and ps have been used singly, as well as in other tests for evaluating the outcomes of individual research studies. In this work, asymptotic distributions of the sample one-sided…

Correlation-based approaches to causal analysis contain too much irrelevant information that masks and modulates the true nature of causal processes in the world. Both causal modeling and path analysis/structural equations give the wrong answers for certain conceptions of causation, given certain assumptions about the "error" variables.…

Protocols were obtained from 22 subjects as they discovered the conditions under which equilibrium is obtained on a balance beam by predicting and observing the outcomes of a series of problems. The interviews revealed that subjects used a variety of heuristics to make predictions once they had isolated the two relevant features of the problem,…

A general model for the homogeneous case of the continuous response is proposed. The model is an expansion and generalization of the one proposed by the author in 1974, in which the open response situation is dealt with. In this generalized model, the closed response situation is dealt with, and it includes the model for the open response…

THIS NOTE DESCRIBES THE PROCEDURES USED IN DETERMINING DYNAMOD II AGE TRANSITION MATRICES. A SEPARATE MATRIX FOR EACH SEX-RACE GROUP IS DEVELOPED. THESE MATRICES WILL BE USED AS AN AID IN ESTIMATING THE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES IN THE LARGER DYNAMOD II MATRIX RELATING AGE TO OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORIES. THREE STEPS WERE USED IN THE PROCEDURE--(1)…