This paper encourages the use of multiple logistic analysis in early intervention research, to assess the degree of association of multiple factors (such as subject or situational characteristics) with a dichotomous outcome (such as benefitting or not benefitting from an intervention) and to estimate the probability of each outcome. (JDD)

The explicit, experimental introduction of a series of logical inconsistencies is described and recommended as a means of disrupting the faulty logic and, thereby, enhancing the use of more appropriate probabilistic reasoning by graduate students enrolled in an introductory inferential statistics course. (14 references) (JJK)

A model is proposed for the clinical synthesis of data from psychological tests of persons with visual impairments. The model integrates the concepts of the ideal type and Bayesian probability and compares actual test scores with ideal scores through use of a pattern similarity coefficient. A pilot study with Business Enterprise Program operators…

This tutorial summarizes some of the widely known limitations of tests of statistical significance and then focuses on extracting measures of variation accounted for as a supplement to significance testing. Two measures of variation accounted for, eta squared and omega squared, are discussed. Computational formulas, computational examples, and…

A theoretical model is proposed for confidence in knowledge based on the assumption that people are good judges of the reliability of their knowledge, provided that the knowledge is representatively sampled from a specified reference class as defined by E. Brunswik (1943). Experiments with 177 college students support the theory. (SLD)

A probabilistic choice model, based on L. L. Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment Case V, is developed for paired comparisons data about psychological stimuli. The model assumes that each stimulus is measured on a small number of physical variables. An algorithm for estimating parameters is illustrated with real data. (SLD)

Describes a theoretical model based on binary vectors that was developed to improve relevance in information retrieval systems. Earlier probabilistic models are examined, quadratic and linear discriminant functions are discussed, relationships between queries and documents are considered, and further research is suggested. (15 references) (LRW)

A unidimensional model for responses to statements that have an unfolding structure was constructed from the cumulative Rasch model for ordered response categories. A joint maximum likelihood estimation procedure was investigated. Analyses of data from a small simulation and a real data set show that the model is readily applicable. (SLD)

Five experiments involving a total of 268 college students indicate that people are especially likely to overinfer quantity or probability from numerosity when they are asked to make inherently difficult judgments, when they are asked to render judgments while performing a concurrent task, and when they are forced to make rapid judgments. (SLD)

Presents a game to capture student interest in probability by giving them an opportunity to explore the idea of various outcomes and the likelihood of the occurrence of one of those outcomes to explain the benefits of using a large sample rather than a small one. (ASK)

Presents a dice game that students can use as a basis for exploring mathematical probabilities and making decisions while they also exercise skills in multiplication, pattern identification, proportional thinking, and communication. (ASK)

Presents an activity that utilizes the mathematical models of forest fires and oil spills that were generated (in the first part of this activity, published in the November 1998 issue) by students using probability and cellular automata. (ASK)

Presents a variety of problems for elementary and secondary school students that focus on probability. Activities involving coins, M & M candies, and the game show "Let's Make a Deal," are described, and Web sites for the activities are listed as well as sites for lesson plans. (LRW)

Provides a protocol for counseling families with an autistic member concerning the risk of having an autistic child. Reports data regarding empirical recurrence risks and identifies the key elements that influence recurrence risks for individual couples. Counseling expertise in both diagnosis and treatment of autism and in the genetics of complex…

The probabilistic retrieval model developed in this paper incorporates the relationships of descriptors. A learning model is proposed to figure out the relationships incrementally. Each time retrieval results are available, the method identifies in the relevant documents the descriptors that designate the concepts specified by the query…