A game simulating a probability problem is described. Modifications of the game are discussed. (DT)

Judgmental standard setting approaches rely on the perceptions of experts about examinee performance on a test. Traditional standard setting methods ask panelists to predict the probability that a randomly selected, hypothetical minimally competent candidate (MCC) will correctly answer test questions. Item performance predictions are difficult for…

This assessment sample provides information on the Missouri Assessment Program (MAP) for grade 8 mathematics. The sample consists of three items taken from the test booklet and scoring guides for the three items. The items assess number theory, data analysis, probability and statistics, and patterns and relationships. (MM)

The challenges of modeling students' performance in simulation-based assessments include accounting for multiple aspects of knowledge and skill that arise in different situations and the conditional dependencies among multiple aspects of performance in a complex assessment. This paper describes a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating…

Describes the development of a curriculum to improve problem- solving ability when faced with uncertainty by (1) encouraging students to examine their thought processes, (2) presenting fallacious arguments, and (3) providing better tools for decision making. Relevant psychological research, some problems of teacher training, and a small-scale…

Describes a computer-based method of confidence-testing, available in batch processing and interactive form, which improves a student's ability to assess probabilities during clinical diagnosis. The methods and results of three experiments are presented. (EAO)

A three-year research project in England investigated the probability concepts of students aged 11-16. A 26-item test was administered to 2,930 students. The development and test results of one item are presented to illustrate the difficulty of item construction and interpretation. (MNS)

Pascal's Triangle is examined within the context of providing a partial model for the outcomes of dice throws. Several issues are addressed regarding the nature of the pattern. Discussion leads to the development of a general formula for six-sided dice. Modifications for other than six sides are noted. (MP)

Six classes of fifth- and sixth-grade students were taught a unit on probability. Following the lesson, students were interviewed about their thought processes. Students' reports of their understanding of the lesson and their use of specific cognitive strategies were related to achievement. (Author/BW)

Two teaching ideas are shared. The first deals with a game called "Mathardy," which is similar to the old television show "Jeopardy," and which can be adapted to nearly any age and subject matter. The second idea deals with probability graphs of data from a basketball team. (MP)

A model of competition probabilities using past performances of competitors against common opponents is constructed. Application to predicting victories in athletic competitions is also reviewed. (MP)

Record-breaking snowfalls are the starting point of a presentation that delves into many aspects of probability and interesting and unusual aspects of viewing independent, random phenomena. (MP)

Owen's Bayesian tailored testing method is introduced along with a brief review of its derivation. The characteristics of a good item bank are outlined and explored in terms of their influence on the Bayesian tailoring process. (Author/RC)

Describes a game originally published by the Australian Association of Mathematics Teachers (AAMT) as a chance and data activity. Includes a variety of modifications and extensions of the board game, and a discussion on the use of an empirical approach as an access issue. (DDR)