This package introduces college students to the elements of the Prince System, a widely used system for making political forecasts and developing political strategies. Designed to be completed in two to three weeks, the two exercises enable students to (1) identify political issues that the Prince System can help them understand, (2) determine the…

A general approach is proposed for modeling the structure of a two-way contingency table, and for drawing inferences about the marginal and interaction effects, cell parameters, and conditional probabilities. The prior distribution expresses uncertainty in a simple reduced model, in particular the independence model. The posterior estimates of the…

The material looks at: 1) Choosing a Clinical Test; 2) Evaluation of Diagnostic Tests; 3) Multi-Disease and Multi-Test Analysis; and 4) Medical Decision Analysis. It is felt users will be able to: 1) calculate the predictive value of a positive or negative test result in model clinical situations; 2) estimate the sensitivity and specificity…

This Study Guide on Contemporary Problems, Number 8, is one of a series prepared by the American Association for the Advancement of Science representing part of the 1974-75 National Science Foundation Chautauqua-Type Short Courses for College Teachers Program. This is a test edition and contains evaluation forms to be completed by the users and to…

This paper describes two procedures for making binary classification decisions using tailored testing: the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) and a Bayesian decision procedure. The first procedure described, the SPRT, was developed by Wald for quality control work. It has not been widely applied for testing applications because the…

A multiparameter, programmable model was developed to examine the interactive influence of certain parameters on the probability of deciding that an examinee had attained a specified degree of mastery. It was applied within the simulated context of performance testing of military trainees. These parameters included: (1) the number of assumed…

Sixty undergraduates were given one of five programmed mathematics texts. The texts were either completely programmed, programmed only for definitions, programmed only for calculations, programmed only for conceptual information, or not programmed at all. Time spent reading each section of the eight-unit text was recorded and a 24-question…

This report is an attempt to analyze the aggression which occurs within extended dyadic interchanges of parent and child, husband and wife, or sibling and peers. An argument is made for a "performance" theory of children's noxious behaviors based on the assumption that most children, exposed to modeling and reinforcing contingencies through which…

This report provides an analysis of young men in the Parnes National Longitudinal Surveys who were enrolled in manpower programs from 1963 to 1972. It provides information on the Probability that members of the 5,225 sample would enter a manpower program, given personal and economic characteristics. The report evaluates the relationship of…

The four purposes of this study were: (1) To compare two versions of a tailored testing model similar to one suggested by Kalisch (1974); (2) To identify levels of the variables within the two versions, which produce an efficient tailored testing procedures; (3) To compare, within each version, the results obtained when employing relatively small…

A computer simulation of Bayes' Theorem was conducted in order to determine the probability that an examinee was a master conditional upon his test score. The inputs were: number of mastery states assumed, test length, prior expectation of masters in the examinee population, and conditional probability of a master getting a randomly selected test…

This monograph on elementary probability for middle school, junior high, or high school consumer mathematics students is divided into two parts. Part one emphasizes lessons which cover the fundamental counting principle, permutations, and combinations. The 5 lessons of part I indicate the objectives, examples, methods, application, and problems…

Two tailored testing models, specifying procedures by which the correctness of examinees' responses to a fixed number of test items are predicted by presenting as few items as possible to the examinee, were compared for their efficiency. The models differ in that one requires reconsideration of each prediction whenever additional information is…

In a primer intended for the administrative professions, for the behavioral sciences, and for education, simulation and its various aspects are defined, illustrated, and explained. Man-model simulation, man-computer simulation, all-computer simulation, and analysis are discussed as techniques for studying object systems (parts of the "real…

The primary aim of this guide is to aid teachers in planning and preparing a senior high school mathematics course for students preparing for college work. It is divided into separate one-semester courses of seven chapters each. The first-semester course consists of a traditional approach to the introduction of trigonometry and trigonometric…