Discusses a framework for assessing middle school students' thinking in conditional probability and independence. Establishes four levels of thinking from subjective to numerical reasoning for both constructs. Students (n=15) from grades 4-8 were interviewed. Profiles reveal that levels of probabilistic thinking were stable across the two…

In machine-mediated learning environments, there is a need for more reliable methods of calculating the probability that a learner's response will be correct in future trials. A combination of domain-independent response-state measures of cognition along with two instructional variables for maximum predictive ability are demonstrated. (Author/LRW)

Analysis of patterns in time (APT) is presented as a method for gathering information about observable phenomena so that probabilities of temporal patterns of events can be estimated empirically. APT is illustrated through a classroom study of 25 mentally handicapped students and in a study of 2 computer-based tests. (SLD)

Provides a short BASIC program, RANVAR, which generates random variates for various theoretical probability distributions. The seven variates include: uniform, exponential, normal, binomial, Poisson, Pascal, and triangular. (MVL)

This paper describes a computer simulation of Buffon's needle problem. The problem considers the probability that a needle will cross a line when the needle is thrown in a random way onto the parallel lines a certain distance apart. The paper provides the algorithm and computer program. (YP)

Describes the Interactive Mathematics Program (IMP), a four-year program of problem-based mathematics that integrates algebra, geometry, and trigonometry with additional topics, such as probability and statistics, and uses calculator and computer technology to enhance student understanding. (MKR)

Demonstrates the use of graphing technology to help students develop and interpret three models of jury behavior and explore the potential effect of such actions as changing jury size. MathCAD, an electronic notebook was used. (Contains 10 references.) (MKR)

This article gives a comprehensive description of a theory for efficient assessment of knowledge. The essential concept is that the knowledge state of a subject, with regard to a specified field of information, can be represented by a particular subset of problems that the subject is capable of solving. (SLD)

Procedures for obtaining student samples for the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) and deriving survey weights for analysis of survey data are described. Sample designs are economically and operationally feasible, and weighting procedures result in increased precision of estimates as they account for the probabilities of student…

We investigated how adolescents' and parents' future beliefs, i.e. their goals and probability estimations (regarding future career, social and family life) were (1) structured, (2) interrelated, and (3) whether adolescents' perceived family interaction mediated parents' and adolescents' beliefs, among 239 11--16-year olds and 197 parents. Using…

In this paper we address the points raised by groups of scientists who were invited to respond to our initial critique of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) research in this special issue. In that article, we applied six objective criteria to more than two decades of published PCB research and concluded that much of the research was badly flawed. The…

This paper describes a classroom teaching experiment, concerning the concept of probability, with children aged 5 in a kindergarten school. The teaching experiment was based on constructivist and interactionist theories about the learning of school mathematics and lasted one month. The collection of the information was based on the tape-recorded…

If risk taking is in some measure a signal to others by the person taking risks, the model of "costly signaling" predicts that the more the apparent cost of the risk to others exceeds the perceived cost of the risk to the risk taker, the more attractive that risk will be as a signal. One hundred and twelve visitors to youth…

This article addresses the relationship between academic achievement and the student characteristics of absence and mobility. Mobility is a measure of how often a student changes schools. Absence is how often a student misses class. Standardized test scores are used as proxies for academic achievement. A model for the full joint distribution of…

The purpose of this article is to identify the difficulty of learning materials in the network by using learner's portfolio in the asynchronous learning system. Asynchronous learning takes the advantage of information technology that records the learning portfolio of the learner. The data of the learning portfolio reflects the characteristics of…