We analyse the "two-dice horse race" task often used in lower secondary school, in which two ordinary dice are thrown repeatedly and each time the sum of the scores determines which horse (numbered 1 to 12) moves forwards one space.

Observational learning is an important mechanism for cognitive and social development. However, the neurophysiological mechanisms underlying observational learning in children are not well understood. In this study, we used a probabilistic reward-based observational learning paradigm to compare behavioral and electrophysiological markers of…

In the machine learning literature, it is commonly accepted as fact that as calibration sample sizes increase, Naïve Bayes classifiers initially outperform Logistic Regression classifiers in terms of classification accuracy. Applied to subtests from an on-line final examination and from a highly regarded certification examination, this study shows…

To measure individual difference in latent attributes more precisely, this study proposed a new cognitive diagnosis model (CDM), which is referred as the probabilistic-inputs, noisy conjunctive (PINC) model, by treating the deterministic binary latent attributes as probabilistic, and directly estimating the probability in the model. Simulation…

The majority of university students in the United Arab Emirates are English language learners. As a country that has only recently established its educational system based on an American model, it has adopted English as its language for teaching and learning. Challenges related to the use of a second language have been noted and simple…

Curriculum Associates' i-Ready is an adaptive diagnostic and individualized instructional tool that has been used in M-DCPS in the last few years. In addition, Curriculum Associates provides the District with results of their predictive model, which uses the students' outcomes on the Fall and Winter i-Ready diagnostic testing as well as the…

Traditionally, teacher salaries have been determined solely by experience and educational attainment. This has led to chronic shortages of teachers in particular subject areas, such as math, science and special education. We study the first long-running statewide program to differentiate teacher pay based on subject area, Georgia's bonus system…

In this article, we propose using the Bayes factors (BF) to evaluate person fit in item response theory models under the framework of Bayesian evaluation of an informative diagnostic hypothesis. We first discuss the theoretical foundation for this application and how to analyze person fit using BF. To demonstrate the feasibility of this approach,…

Mokken scale analysis (MSA) is a probabilistic-nonparametric approach to item response theory (IRT) that can be used to evaluate fundamental measurement properties with less strict assumptions than parametric IRT models. This instructional module provides an introduction to MSA as a probabilistic-nonparametric framework in which to explore…

The question of whether humans represent grammatical knowledge as a binary condition on membership in a set of well-formed sentences, or as a probabilistic property has been the subject of debate among linguists, psychologists, and cognitive scientists for many decades. Acceptability judgments present a serious problem for both classical binary…

This paper studies the determinants of academic success using a unique administrative data set of a German university. We show that high school grades are strongly associated with both graduation probabilities and final grades, whereas variables measuring social origin or income have only a smaller impact. Moreover, the link between high school…

In investigations of unusual testing behavior, a common question is whether a specific pattern of responses occurs unusually often within a group of examinees. In many current tests, modern communication techniques can permit quite large numbers of examinees to share keys, or common response patterns, to the entire test. To address this issue,…

As the experience of studying abroad can signal general and transnational human capital, it is considered to be increasingly important for professional careers, particularly in the context of economies' internationalization. However, studies using graduate surveys face problems of self-selection and studies on employers' opinions face problems of…

The literature on factors that influence participation in qualitative research is lacking. We conducted an experiment with a nationally representative sample to test the impact of different incentive types and amounts on willingness to participate in a hypothetical qualitative interview. We randomized participants from an online panel to one of…

Learning to choose adaptively when faced with uncertain and variable outcomes is a central challenge for decision makers. This study examines repeated choice in dynamic probability learning tasks in which outcome probabilities changed either as a function of the choices participants made or independently of those choices. This presence/absence of…