This document contains three selections from the Russian-language journal "Nauchno-Teknicheskaya Informatsiya," Moscow. The first article is "Documentation for Technical Forecasts" by T. A. Vvedenskiy (Series 1, Number 11, 1969, submitted for publication 9 July 1968, p3-5). This article deals with the transformation of the…

Various predictions are being made about the future of library technology, but many of these are "paper dragons"--exciting and plausible, but made without real consideration of need or of the possibility of implementation. A review of many such forecasts makes it possible to develop criteria for a logical and credible prediction:…

All forms of play are transformations of four basic modes by which people know the world: copying, analysis, prediction, and synthesis. Transformation involves foregoing the usual outcomes of adapted intelligence for the sake of voluntary control of one's own behavior in games, and for the excitement of novel affective, cognitive and behavioral…

The report summarizes the aims of a 3-year program of work concerned with psychological factors in solar observing. Part I identifies several psychological factors which may affect solar observing and outlines a program of research. Part II is a report of a program of studies dealing with the application of visual perceptions in solar flare…

The use of Bayesian statistics as the basis of classical analysis of data is described. Bayesian analysis is a set of procedures for changing opinions about a given phenomenon based upon rational observation of a set of data. The Bayesian arrives at a set of prior beliefs regarding some states of nature; he observes data in a study and then…

In an investigation of the accuracy of self-evaluation on test performance, 210 junior high school science students were asked to predict their scores before and after taking each unit test. Absolute differences between the two predictions and actual scores were the random variables analyzed. Analysis of variance and Markov chain analyses revealed…

Theorists have argued that the relatedness of words depends upon the degree to which they are associatively connected. Hierarchies of association have been established using two experimental methods: (1) the procedural method, and (2) the repetitions method. Since the results of the two methods have proven to be somewhat inconsistent, a study was…

In order to verify that a test made of items selected from a pool produces the same Rasch scaled achievement scores as would be predicted from previous Rasch difficulty calibrations for those items, the following experiment was conducted. Seven math tests with similar content but graduated difficulty were administered to students in grade seven.…

This is the first article of a two-part series on how research can help reduce the hazards of earthquakes. It deals with attempts to predict quakes so that people can get out of the way. (Author/HM)

Suggests that the instructional development (ID) movement should seriously re-examine its basis of existence and modus operandi and that, although instructional developers have been tolerated and even accepted, that is not sufficient for survival. (Author/JEG)

Argues that instructional development can deliver right now, and will be able to deliver even more as knowledge and techniques expand. (Author/JEG)

The study, involving 195 gifted third, fourth, and sixth graders, examined the effectiveness and efficiency of teacher recommendation as a means of identying gifted children. (Author/SBH)

A factor analysis was performed on a set of variables (including subject characteristics, standardized tests, ratings, and work samples) used to predict work performance, or industrial rate, for 127 mentally retarded adults. (Author)

Recent mathematical descriptions of Bradford's distribution, and a new formulation that provides a more accurate estimation of the total number of papers and sources on a given scientific subject are presented. (Author/MBR)

In order to help children appreciate poetic surprises, teachers should select poems which appeal to the predictive sense by means of such devices as rhyming words, thematic twists, and surprise endings. (DD)