Reports an improved methodology for estimating teacher salary costs well in advance of the fiscal year. The Markov approach, based on probabilistic techniques, provided a more accurate prediction of school district personnel costs than did the traditional deterministic technique for the budget year studied. Includes four tables and nine…

Longitudinal research indicates that high levels of overactivity, limited attention span, and impulsivity (diagnostic indicators of Attention Deficit Disorder) observed at preschool age are likely to be associated with continued difficulties at school age. However, the prediction of outcome for individual children is not straightforward.…

Comparison of 154 families who placed developmentally disabled family members in residential programs and 377 families who cared for family members at home suggested increased incidence of family problems as well as more severe impairment among families who placed the developmentally disabled. (Author/DB)

Outlines important considerations for establishing suicide prevention programs in high schools. Teenage suicide rate has doubled since 1970. To deal with this crisis schools must develop procedures for detecting potential victims and for helping students and staff cope after a suicide. Schools must not be afraid to talk about suicide; avoiding the…

Developmental professions outline the steps and key concepts in the planning and evaluation of fund-raising goals and of the potential to obtain gift support for them. (Author)

The paper examines the contributions of Katrina de Hirsch to the understanding of developmental language disabilities, particularly in the areas of neurophysiological immaturity, the cluttering syndrome, the prediction of reading failure, and normal language development. (Author/DB)

Argues that library book circulation is a binomial rather than a Poisson process, and that individual book popularities are continuous beta distributions. Three examples demonstrate the superiority of beta over negative binomial distribution, and it is suggested that a bivariate-binomial process would be helpful in predicting future book…

Describes features of a macroeconomics model that runs on a microcomputer and its solution, sometimes called a simulation. Specific uses of the model in the teaching of introductory and intermediate/advanced levels of macroeconomics are discussed, as well as use by economic planners in running alternative forecasts. (MBR)

A sequel to a report of acoustic characteristics of oral reading by 36 (aged 10-12 years), children, this article describes results: of perceptual analyses of oral reading proficiency on a five-point scale; of reading error analysis; and of multiple regression analysis for testing predictability of the oral reading proficiency from the perceptual…

A brief review of current techniques for forecasting trends and planning ways in which training can facilitate technology and human resource change--trend extrapolation, scenario forecasting, relevance trees, and technology assessment--is followed by a discussion of the Delphi Technique, its development, advantages and disadvantages, and how the…

Explores the degree to which individuals remain consistent within a framework of changing behavioral characteristics. Includes discussions of problems of measurement; correlational studies; and studies of changing levels under normal conditions, after major environmental shifts, and across generations. (RH)

Over 500 men who attended an independent school for children with developmental dyslexia were followed up from one to 38 years after they left the school. Socioeconomic status and IQ were not predictive of adult outcome. Severity of reading problem upon entrance and academic and remedial progress while at school were predictive of adult…

The effects of training Hispanic college students in test-taking skills were examined. A mathematics achievement test was found to have slightly lower internal consistency and higher predictive validity for the group given training than for the control group. (MNS)

Contrasted two theoretical models to explain the mathematics final exam performance of 143 undergraduates: social learning theory variables and the math aptitude-anxiety models. The social learning theory model accounted for significantly more performance variation, and each of the variables (skills, incentives, efficacy expectations, and outcome…

A review of 5000 scenarios from gifted children in grades 4-12, in 16 countries, who participated in the International Scenerio Writing Project, reveals the children's hopes, dreams, and fears and offers approximately 14 exerpts containing the children's predictions of the future. (MC)