A study of a statistical model designed to estimate the number of accepted medical school applicants likely to matriculate found that probability ranges for matriculation may be derived using data available from computerized student records. The model was able to classify accurately over 70 percent of students. (MSE)

Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

In four tasks, 42 children between three and five years of age were asked to identify materials and familiar objects, and to predict which items would adhere to a magnet. No age differences were found in the ability to identify objects, but significant differences occurred in identification of materials and prediction of magnetic attraction. (RH)

This article discusses the uses of production function models and describes the role of inferential statistics for making predictions in school finance. Specifically, the analysis evaluates types, suggests uses, explains the advantages and disadvantages, and lists the statistical complexities of production functions. (JAM)

A statistical model for citation processes is presented as a particular version of a nonhomogenous birth process. The mean value function and special transition probabilities, which can readily be calculated on the basis of known and estimated parameters, give essential information on the change of citation impact in time. (10 references) (KRN)

A theorem is presented that describes conditions under which measurement invariance is consistent with predictive invariance for the linear case. These two forms of invariance are shown to be inconsistent under realistic conditions, and the duality is illustrated with simulated data. Implications for group differences research are discussed. (SLD)

Pavlov denotes a family of stochastic learning strategies that achieves the mutually cooperative outcome in the iterated prisoner's dilemma against a wide variety of strategies. Although faster learners will eventually dominate a given homogeneous Pavlov population, the process must proceed through a gradual increase in the rate of learning. (JBJ)

Three experiments examined implication-realization model's description of tone-to-tone expectancies for continuations of melodies. The model successfully predicted listeners' judgments across different musical styles, regardless of the listener's musical training or nationality. The collinearity of the model's predictors indicated, however, that a…

A study of training and transfer between two subtasks, involving 96 undergraduates, indicated that there was substantially more transfer between the subtasks than was predicted by the Adaptive Control of Thought (ACT) theory of Singley and Anderson (1989). The current emphasis on procedural transfer overlooks important sources of transfer. (SLD)

Both expectancy-theory and needs-theory variables were used to predict college student performance (overall grade point average) for 81 students. The average valence variable from the expectancy theory model was found to be the best overall predictor of actual academic performance, but the need for autonomy score was also a predictor. (SLD)

Key challenges are (1) using forecasting and prediction; (2) inventing possible futures; (3) matching futuring techniques to different populations; (4) using a holistic approach; and (5) serving as a futures role model. (JOW)

Forty-eight Israelis who had completed a leisure activities inventory in high school completed an inventory of adult accomplishments 18 years later. For 38.6% of the subjects, adolescent leisure activities were related to adult occupation. (SK)

A public choice theory of school board member behavior is proposed that makes two contributions to the study of school governance. It provides a theoretical framework for microanalyses of school governance. Furthermore, it has the potential to increase the power to predict behavior and events in school governance. (TJH)

A framework for applying the vision-building process to community education includes (1) rationale for change and need for clear vision; (2) community profile; (3) new values and beliefs; (4) divergent thinking; (5) creating the vision; (6) building the roadmap; (7) enabling participation; and (8) restructuring communities. (SK)

Examined cognitive impairment as predictor of community services used by older adults. For 97 health care clients, effects of 4 predictors differed depending on clients' cognitive impairment: living arrangement, presence of secondary caregivers, client depression, and task burden of primary caregiver. Found no differences in predictors of social…