Presents a formal method for making important one-shot decisions based on an elimination process which uses sequentially acquired information and is based on a conditional belief structure. The routine updating of the structure as information accumulates is based on Dempster's rule of combination. (15 references) (EAM)

Describes habituation and addiction, both psychological and physiological, using simple equations of mathematical model of ideodynamics, optimized to smoking data from Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT) program. With only four constant parameters, it was possible to calculate accurate time trends for recidivism to smoking among…

Starting from perfectly discriminating nonmonotone dichotomous items, a class of probabilistic models with or without response errors and with or without intrinsically unscalable respondents is described. Involving simply restricted latent class analysis, the models are free of problems associated with the estimation and identifiability of…

Describes several activities of the Data and Chance program involving third and fourth graders. Students use real-life situations to investigate probability. (MKR)

A new theory of subjective probability is presented. According to this theory, different descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. Experimental evidence supporting this theory is summarized, demonstrating that the theory provides a unified treatment of a wide range of empirical findings. (SLD)

Revision-of-opinion literature has generally found subjective probability judgments to be conservative (underconfident), whereas calibration literature has generally found judgment to be overconfident. Reanalysis of three previous studies shows how such data can coexist and reveals the effects of methodology on judgment interpretations. (SLD)

Discussion of probabilistic information retrieval systems highlights the probability ranking principle and discusses when the standard retrieval policy is optimal. Topics discussed include calibration and refinement; independent assessment of relevance by the inquirer; certainty about the computed probabilities of relevance; and confidence and…

This paper proposes a generalization of Thurstonian probabilistic choice models for analyzing both multiple preference responses and their relationships. The approach is illustrated by modeling data from two multivariate preference experiments. Preliminary data analyses show that the extension can yield an adequate representation of multivariate…

Discusses search engines used on the World Wide Web and explains Web-searching principles. Topics include statistics and probability, relevance, weighted terms, precision and recall, monitoring and filtering software, push technology, Boolean operators, metasearch engines, and special features of six main search engines. (LRW)

Proposes a probability heuristic model for syllogistic reasoning and confirms the rationality of this heuristic by an analysis of the probabilistic validity of syllogistic reasoning that treats logical inference as a limiting case of probabilistic inference. Meta-analysis and two experiments involving 40 adult participants and using generalized…

Describes a personal problem solving-inquiry journey, working on a problem suggested by an activity on probability observed in a junior primary classroom. Presents reflective thoughts about the mathematical and pedagogical lessons to be learned from this journey. (ASK)

Describes a bottom-up procedure for discovering multivalued dependencies in observed data without knowing a priori the relationships among the attributes. The proposed algorithm is an application of technique designed for learning conditional independencies in probabilistic reasoning; a prototype system for automated database schema design has…

Explores changes in students' probabilistic thinking and writing during an instructional program that emphasized transactional writing in a problem-solving context. Finds no significant correlations between probabilistic thinking and writing levels--students made gains in both probability reasoning and writing. Reveals their writing incorporated…

Presents an analysis of the different meanings associated with randomness throughout its historical evolution as well as a summary of research concerning the subjective perception of randomness by children and adolescents. Some teaching suggestions are included to help students gradually understand the characteristics of random phenomena. Contains…

Compares the odds ratio with the probability ratio (relative risk). These quantities arise, for example, in the analysis of educational and social science through logistic regression. (Author/SLD)