College students attempted to learn the concept of binomial probability from four-lesson teaching booklets. The booklets were of two forms, one emphasizing calculation with a formula and the other stressing the meanings of component variables. Also some subjects studied only one or two parts of the booklets while others completed the booklets…

The relationship between true ability (operationally defined as the number of items for which the examinee actually knew the correct answer) and the effects of guessing upon observed test variance was investigated. Three basic hypotheses were treated mathematically: there is no functional relationship between true ability and guessing success;…

The main purpose of this study was to develop predictive expressions for community college curricula, particularly in the vocational areas, that would indicate the probable success of entering freshmen. The study, conducted at San Diego City and San Diego Mesa Colleges during 1967-68, included 2,279 students. The subjects were divided into groups…

The area investigated in the present study is the comparison of the permutation t-test with Student's t-test and the Mann-Whitney U-test. The comparison was made for small samples for three distributions, including a normal distribution, a uniform distribution, and a skewed distribution. The properties of each test compared were the probability of…

One approach to the problem of analyzing classroom interaction by use of a Markoff chain is presented. The two sections of the paper present (1) a discusion of Hoel's test of order of a Markoff chain, and a Likelihood Ratio Criterion (LRC) for a two-dependent Markoff chain is given, and (2) a discussion of possible adjustments of Darwin's LRC with…

The analysis of covariance is frequently used in observational studies to either adjust treatment comparisons for biases due to different distributions of extraneous variables or for improving the precison of the treatment comparisons. This paper discusses aspects that the researcher should keep in mind when planning such a study. In particular it…

Some applications of the theory of games to competitive situations are examined by looking at several examples, including a military problem, a political problem, and a prisoner's dilemma. (MP)

This informal survey found that the probability that a person is in the over 45 age group, and is left-handed, is significantly different from the probability in the population as a whole. (MP)

Assumptions underlying Cooper's exact probability test for Likert-type scales are examined and found not always to hold true. A modification of his test is derived, differences in results obtained with the two tests are presented, and the significance of the results discussed. (KR)

A computer program for PET users is presented that simulates a probability machine. (MP)

This discussion of the results from the probability questions of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) identifies probability as an area of serious concern. (MP) Aspect of National Assessment (NAEP) dealt with in this document: Results (Interpretation).

The relationship between quantitative predictor variables and the probability of occurrence of one or more levels of a qualitative criterion variable can be analyzed by quantal response techniques. This paper presents and discusses two quantal response models, comparing them to multiple linear regression and discriminant analysis. (Author/JKS)

Four different methods for estimating the proportions of testees properly classified as having mastered or not mastered test content are examined, using data from the Scholastic Aptitude Test. All four methods prove reasonably accurate and all show some bias under certain conditions. (JKS)

The focus of this paper is an empirical illustration of how distorted subjective probabilities for sex of next birth might influence fertility behavior. Recent models of the fertility decision-making process are provided. (Author/MA)

The author uses mathematical models that involve only algebra and a few basic ideas in discrete probability to describe the frequency of conception in large human societies. A number of calculations which can be done by students as exercises are given. (MN)