Focuses on three management tools--the Delphi technique, Bayesian statistics, and Monte Carlo simulation--in order to simulate a problem-solving/decision-making situation with which an educational administrator may be faced. (Author)

Investigated the prediction of success in the six-year combined undergraduate and medical education program at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. Implications for selection policy are considered. (Author)

Predictions based on theories of verbal learning proposed by Spence and Eysenck were compared by using a noncompetitive list of paired-associates formed from seven synonym pairs, and a competitive list formed by pairing each of the seven S words with a R word with which it was not synonymous. (Editor)

Population aging refers to an entire age structure becoming older. The age structure of a population is the result of three basic processes: fertility, mortality, and migration. Age structures reflect both past effects and current patterns of these processes. At the town, city, or regional level, migration becomes an important factor in raising…

To examine the role of friendship among children involved in potential conflicts, 37 aggressive, 37 non-aggressive, and 76 "intermediate" third- and fifth-grade boys were presented with a variety of potentially conflictual situations, nine in story form and one involving a contest. Each situation involved a negative or ambiguous outcome…

This paper reports on a study conducted to determine the extent to which failing secondary school students can be identified in advance through analysis of student records. The research, conducted in an urban school district, utilized data such as achievement test results, school attendance, and course grades, as well as a survey of sample…

The dynamic linear model or Kalman filtering model provides a useful methodology for predicting the past, present, and future states of a dynamic system, such as an object in motion or an economic or social indicator that is changing systematically with time. Recursive likelihood methods for adaptive Kalman filtering and smoothing are developed.…

Many social policies rely on assessments of violence potential in their implementation. Decisions concerning such civil matters as involuntary institutionalization and level of institutional custody, and criminal matters such as type or length of sentence and the granting of bail often rely on estimates of the potential that an individual will be…

This bulletin focuses on the views of four authors. The first, Daniel R. Davies, describes the rise and fall of local control and local school board policies and predicts how the vacuum will be filled. Specifically, he analyzes the concomitant waning of local control and school board policymaking power and forecasts stages in the transition from…

Some of the conceptual qualitative ideas needed to test nonlinear models empirically and to modify them are described. Relationships among these ideas and computer applications are also examined to elucidate the general process of nonlinear modeling. Two examples are presented along with a discussion of bifurcation, catastrophe, and maximum…

Possible futures for the world of mainframe computers can be forecast through studies identifying forces of change and their impact on current trends. Some new prospects for the future have been generated by advances in information technology; for example, recent United States successes in applied artificial intelligence (AI) have created new…

The study examined predictions concerning the future of special education as voiced by special education administrators, special education teachers, and members of advocacy organizations for the handicapped. A Delphi survey composed of four rounds was used to elicit responses from participants and to obtain a consensus of opinion within each…

This study employed a multiple regression to predict examinees' differential performance when tested by familiar and unfamiliar examiners. Subjects were 32 preschool and school-age handicapped children, each of whom had been tested on the Clinical Evaluation of Language Functions, once by a familiar and once by an unfamiliar tester, within a…

The study examined the relationship between the family environment of 124 hearing impaired children (9-13 years old) and academic achievement. Interviews focused on what parents do with their children, how they interact (the social-psychological family environment) as well as status characteristics in relation to their children's academic…