The forecast reported here surveys expected utilization levels, organizational structures, and values concerning technology in education in 1990. The focus is upon educational technology and forecasting methodology; televised instruction, computer-assisted instruction (CAI), and information services are considered. The methodology employed…

The 1966 Invitational Conference on Testing Problems dealt with the innovations of the new age of flexibility and the problems of evaluating and preparing for them. Papers presented in Session I, Innovation and Evaluation, were: (1) "Innovation and Evaluation: In Whose Hands?" by Nils Y. Wessell; (2) "The Discovery and Development of Educational…

The effectiveness of the Delphi Technique is evaluated in terms of immediate and delayed controlled information feedback (feedback within 5 seconds as compared with a 24-hour delay); and the relationships that exist among measures of integrative complexity, estimations about the time of occurrence of future events, and time delay between task…

A study was conducted to assess the effectiveness of oral language responses as predictors of the reading performance of intermediate-grade students. Responses were considered to be paradigmatic if they illustrated superordinate, coordinate, contrast, or part-whole relationships. Other responses were considered syntagmatic. Subjects were 52 fourth…

As one of a series of reports in progress, this report is introduced with a discussion of the concepts underlying long-range planning of any kind, and the methods of research used to describe alternative patterns of evolution or change within various policy fields. The FAR method, which emerged out of the Contingent U.S. Patterns (CUSPs) analysis…

This bibliography of materials relevant to educational policymaking is confined to trends, forecasts, and proposals -- i.e., documents on changes that are taking place, on future states of affairs, and on recommended changes. The material is organized into seven sections: (1) general, (2) elementary and secondary, (3) higher education, (4) other…

This study of predictive validities of Academic Interest Measures (AIM) is based on a follow-up through Grade 12 and one year after high school graduation, of students tested in Grade 11. Major topics considered are: prediction of both marks and interests in Grades 12 and 13, emphasizing differential prediction; structure of abilities, interests…

This report describes the development of a teacher cost model for the Ontario secondary school system that allows educational officials, using a specified set of input information, to forecast the provincial wage-bill for a period of up to five years. The model is composed of two sub-models -- the teacher manpower sub-model and the teacher salary…

Arguments which suggest that improved prediction of multiple criteria can be achieved employing pattern scoring of responses, as opposed to conventional methods, are examined. Models for improving prediction of single and multiple criteria were examined. The findings are: (1) simple linear combinations of predictor variables perform as well…

One of a series of papers on critical issues in vocational-technical education, this paper presents an overview of (1) manpower supply and demand factors, (2) techniques for geographic allocation of resources, and (3) strategies for curricular prioritization and determination as they relate to program planning for vocational education. Emphasis is…

State departments of education were surveyed to determine the status of social studies in the United States. Supplemental background data were also gathered from local school districts and previous research. The purpose of the survey was to obtain information on course offerings, enrollments, and requirements in social studies. Some limitations of…

The study investigated the prediction of grade point average (GPA) for disadvantaged and regular freshmen at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, and the effectiveness, in terms of GPA, of an experimental program for disadvantaged students. Descriptive, variance, and correlational (single and multiple) analyses and chi square analyses related…

The change rates of sizes of groups with different educational levels are determined by demographic processes (death rates, ages, migration) and by recruitments from learning institutions and losses caused by moves into higher educational groups. The interrelationship of reproduction of individuals with different training is determined by shifts…

The rate of return on the student's investment in college is the measure of productivity which relates the costs of resources expended in instruction to the values of benefits produced by instruction. Costs, which are concentrated in a brief span of years in early adulthood, and the stream of benefits, which is spread over most of the remainder of…

Discusses importance of academic planning and describes a model-based decision support system for academic units in a university hierarchy. This system integrates macro-level decisions by examining individual departments' budgets to determine future plans. Quantitative techniques for forecasting change are reviewed, including use of spreadsheet…