Objective: In May 2021, U.S. states began implementing "vaccination lotteries" encouraging COVID-19 vaccination. Drawing from Prospect Theory and math cognition research, we tested several monetary lottery structures and their framing to determine which would best motivate unvaccinated adults. Method: In two online experiments, U.S.…

The Peto odds ratio is a well-known effect measure in meta-analysis of binary outcomes. For pairwise comparisons, the Peto odds ratio estimator can be severely biased in the situation of unbalanced sample sizes in the two treatment groups or large treatment effects. In this publication, we evaluate Peto odds ratio estimators in the setting of…

There are two schools of thought in statistical analysis, frequentist, and Bayesian. Though the two approaches produce similar estimations and predictions in large-sample studies, their interpretations are different. Bland Altman analysis is a statistical method that is widely used for comparing two methods of measurement. It was originally…

Recent work in reinforcement learning has demonstrated a choice preference for an option that has a lower probability of reward (A) when paired with an alternative option that has a higher probability of reward (C), if A has been experienced more frequently than C (the frequency effect). This finding is critical as it is inconsistent with…

Prior research has shown conflicting findings on decision-making differences between autistic and non-autistic individuals. To address this issue, we applied the Ultimatum and Dictator Games to examine explicit measures (probability of endorsing monetary offers) and implicit measures (response times) associated with decision-making behaviors. By…

Extreme response style (ERS), the tendency of participants to select extreme item categories regardless of the item content, has frequently been found to decrease the validity of Likert-type questionnaire results. For this reason, various item response theory (IRT) models have been proposed to model ERS and correct for it. Comparisons of these…

This paper examines the impact of a reform aimed at expediting graduation times in Italian universities by reducing the number of exams students must pass to obtain a fixed number of credits. Using event-study estimates that leverage the reform's staggered implementation, we find that this policy change led to an increase in on-time graduation…

In China, parents, teachers, and society generally oppose adolescent romance, believing it impedes youth from academic success. However, research that investigates factors influencing one's involvement in adolescent romance is scarce, especially among rural Chinese youth. Drawing upon 1,262 youth and their mothers in rural Gansu province, China,…

Background: Clustered randomized controlled trials are commonly used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments. Frequently, stratified or paired designs are adopted in practice. Fogarty (2018) studied variance estimators for stratified and not clustered experiments and Schochet et. al. (2022) studied that for stratified, clustered RCTs with…

Sometimes we should persist to succeed. But other times it might be wiser to give up on the task at hand and focus our energy on something new. Knowing whether a task is worth the effort potentially requires multiple capacities, including sensitivity to one's own likelihood to succeed on the current problem, the associated costs with continuing to…

Memory limitations and probabilistic expectations are two key factors that have been posited to play a role in the incremental processing of natural language. Relative clauses (RCs) have long served as a key proving ground for such theories of language processing. Across three self-paced reading experiments, we test the online comprehension of…

This contribution deals with effect measures for covariates in ordinal data models to address the interpretation of the results on the extreme categories of the scales, evaluate possible response styles, and motivate collapsing of extreme categories. It provides a simpler interpretation of the influence of the covariates on the probability of the…

Matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) enables indirect comparisons of interventions across separate studies when individual patient-level data (IPD) are available for only one study. Due to its similarity with propensity score weighting, it has been speculated that MAIC can be combined with outcome regression models in the spirit of…

Coordination of theoretical probability and relative frequency estimates is challenging in probability teaching and learning. Modeling is one of the ways of teaching and learning that facilitates inquiry between these two perspectives. Given that, we designed a modeling activity to support fifteen secondary students in investigating theoretical…

The American School District Panel (ASDP) is the newest addition to the RAND Corporation's American Educator Panels (AEP) and was designed to survey district leaders several times each school year. RAND recruits ASDP members using probabilistic sampling methods, which allow researchers to weight survey results to generalize to the national…