The paper reports the results from 16 versions of a simple probability estimation task, where probability estimates derived from base-rate information have to be modified by case knowledge. In the bus problem [adapted from Falk, R., Lipson, A., & Konold, C. (1994), the ups and downs of the hope function in a fruitless search. In G. Wright & P.…

A computerized sequential event sampling decision-making task was administered to 187 5- to 10-year-olds and adults. Participants made a series of choices between alternatives that differed in win probability (Study 1) or win and loss probability (Study 2). Intuitive and more explicit measures were used. Study 1 revealed that, across ages,…

The well-known "hats" problem, in which a number of people enter a restaurant and check their hats, and then receive them back at random, is often used to illustrate the concept of derangements, that is, permutations with no fixed points. In this paper, the problem is extended to multiple items of clothing, and a general solution to the problem of…

The "matching" hats problem is a classic exercise in probability: if "n" people throw their hats in a box, and then each person randomly draws one out again, what is the expected number of people who draw their own hat? This paper presents several extensions to this problem, with solutions that involve interesting tricks with iterated…

In the branch of probability called "large deviations," rates of convergence (e.g. of the sample mean) are considered. The theory makes use of the moment generating function. So, particularly for sums of independent and identically distributed random variables, the theory can be made accessible to senior undergraduates after a first course in…

What makes some explanations better than others? This paper explores the roles of simplicity and probability in evaluating competing causal explanations. Four experiments investigate the hypothesis that simpler explanations are judged both better and more likely to be true. In all experiments, simplicity is quantified as the number of causes…

In the present work we treat the problem of a particle in a uniform magnetic field along the symmetric gauge, so chosen since the wavefunctions present the required cylindrical symmetry. It is our understanding that by means of this work we can make a contribution to the teaching of the present subject, as well as encourage students to use…

The thermodynamic concepts of First and Second Laws with respect to the entropy function are described using atoms and molecules and probability as manifested in statistical mechanics. The First Law is conceptually understood as [Delta]U = Q + W and the Second Law of Thermodynamics and the entropy function have provided the probability and…

This article engages students in a simulation of the Coat Check problem, in which four women check their coats only to have them returned at random. Students examine the experimental and theoretical probability of at least one woman getting her own coat back.

Previous methodological and applied studies that used binary logistic regression (LR) for detection of differential item functioning (DIF) in dichotomously scored items either did not report an effect size or did not employ several useful measures of DIF magnitude derived from the LR model. Equations are provided for these effect size indices.…

The existence of recurrent synaptic connections in CA3 led to the hypothesis that CA3 is an autoassociative network similar to the Hopfield networks studied by theorists. CA3 undergoes gamma frequency periodic inhibition that prevents a persistent attractor state. This argues against the analogy to Hopfield nets, in which an attractor state can be…

The Monty Hall three-door, "Let's Make a Deal" game, named after the 1970s television show, is used widely in economics, econometrics, statistics, and game-theory-based teaching, as well as in many other disciplines. Its solutions and underlying assumptions arouse great passion and argument, in both the academic and popular press. Most economists…

Alternative measures of "confirmation" or "evidential support" have been proposed to express the impact of ascertaining one event on the credibility of another. We report an experiment that compares the adequacy of several such measures as descriptions of confirmation judgment in a probabilistic context.

Fifty-two years after "Brown v. Board of Education" and 42 years after the Civil Rights Act of 1964, there remains a declining presence of Black teachers and administrators in the United States. As powerful role models for all students, especially Black students, Black educators are crucial to the increasing minority student population…

Using longitudinal administrative data from a large elite research university, this paper separately analyzes the determinants of persistence for life and physical science majors. My results confirm much of the previous research on major persistence in the sciences, but I document that many findings are solely driven by persistence patterns in the…