Argues that Gottlieb rejects population sampling and statistical analyses of distributions as he proposes that his experimental brand of mechanistic science is the only legitimate approach to developmental research. Maintains that Gottlieb exaggerates developmental uncertainty, based on his own research with extreme environmental manipulations.…

Interviews of one child through grades one through five on several combinatorics tasks indicated the student's progress in classifying, organizing, and reorganizing data. Provides significant insight into the process by which the student learned to make proofs. (Author/MKR)

In multivariate analysis of variance studies with small numbers of subjects (15 or less) per treatment level, probability values reported by the commercial statistical packages SAS and SPSS are conservative for F approximations based on Pillai's trace and liberal for F approximations based on the Hotelling-Lawley trace. Discusses results in terms…

Reformulates the success-breeds-success (SBS) principle in informetrics in order to generate a general theory of source-item relationships. Topics include a time-dependent probability, a new model for the expected probability that is compared with the SBS principle with exact combinatorial calculations, classical frequency distributions, and…

Recommends using probability paper, also called normal probability and arithmetic probability paper, for solving probability problems. Provides six examples. (MVL)

Describes a procedure for information retrieval testing that is based on the comparison of statistically independent methods of retrieval applied to the same database. The probability ranking principle is discussed, the statistical meaning of relevance is examined, and the methodology is illustrated on a large database of MEDLINE records. (19…

A rational model of human categorization behavior is presented that assumes that categorization reflects the derivation of optimal estimates of the probability of unseen features of objects. A case is made that categorization behavior can be predicted from the structure of the environment. (SLD)

Presents a theoretical rationale for employing a form of information retrieval algorithm that helps searchers better navigate through large document collections by continually revising probability estimates for document subsets. The algorithm avoids assumptions of index term independence and predicts relevance more accurately with increasing…

The historical development of probability theory is traced from its early origins in games of chance through its mathematical foundations in the work of Pascal and Fermat. The roots of statistics are also presented beginning with early actuarial developments through the work of Laplace, Gauss, and others. (MDH)

How to measure growth in knowledge and ability over time in curriculum research is explored. Two broad classes of probabilistic models are considered, the Rasch model and latent class models with their associated generalizations. Potential of both classes for measuring categorical change is discussed. (SLD)

Presents a theoretical proposal of a methodology for the teaching of probability theory. Discusses the importance of the epistemological approach of Lakatos and the perspective of the conceptual change. Discusses research using a proposed didactic method with Spanish high school students (N=6). Concludes that significant differences on all…

Explores a birthday-related problem that asks about the probability of having people with the same birthday in a room. Utilizes spreadsheets to work on the problem and discusses related teaching issues. Contains 20 references. (ASK)

Suggests that when choosing one's actions in many real world contexts, bare-bone tactics work at least as well as complex statistical formulas. Also, simple strategies wring insight out of shifting environments with much greater ease than do intricate probability equations. (CCM)

Presents activities that allow primary grade students to develop specific thinking strategies for basic facts such as counting on, using doubles, and making 10 in problem-solving settings. Discusses other topics such as probability, spatial sense, and money. Offers rich opportunities for reasoning and communication. (ASK)

Describes a classroom demonstration called the Gambler's Fallacy where students in an introductory psychology statistics class participate in simulated gambling using weekly results from professional football game outcomes over a 10 week period. Explains that the demonstration illustrates that random processes do not self-correct and statistical…