During the 1980s and 1990s, the quantity of probability being taught in mathematics lessons in primary schools in England and Wales went from minimal to extensive and back again. A great deal of effort was invested in a project to incorporate probability into the primary curriculum that has now almost been abandoned. In this article I will attempt…

When the underlying responses are on an ordinal scale, gamma is one of the most frequently used indices to measure the strength of association between two ordered variables. However, except for a brief mention on the use of the traditional interval estimator based on Wald's statistic, discussion of interval estimation of the gamma is limited.…

Individuals are typically more likely to continue to interact with people if they have a positive impression of them. This article shows how this sequential sampling feature of impression formation can explain several biases in impression formation. The underlying mechanism is the sample bias generated when the probability of interaction depends…

In young adults, preparedness to accept improbable events as planned rather than due to chance is predictive of the level of belief in the paranormal, possibly underpinned by lower intelligence levels (Musch and Ehrenberg, 2002). The present study, using a sample of 73 older participants aged 60-84 years failed to find any relationship between…

One theoretical feature that makes item response theory (IRT) models those of choice for many psychometric data analysts is parameter invariance, the equality of item and examinee parameters from different examinee populations or measurement conditions. In this article, using the well-known fact that item and examinee parameters are identical only…

The CODE Theory of Visual Attention (CTVA) is a mathematical model explaining the effects of grouping by proximity and distance upon reaction times and accuracy of response with regard to elements in the visual display. The predictions of the theory agree quite acceptably in one and two dimensions (CTVA-2D) with the experimental results (reaction…

This article presents an approach to enrollment management based on target marketing strategies developed from a choice-based segmentation methodology. Students are classified into "switchable" or "non-switchable" segments based on their probability of selecting specific majors. A modified multinomial logit choice model is used to identify…

The European higher education landscape is inhabited by three clans: the Euro-philiac, his wicked twin, the Euro-phobic and most interesting of all, the Euro-sceptic. This unholy trinity has long been with us. Though the recent Euro electoral fiasco has in all probability served to bolster the ranks of the second and third tribes.

Phonotactic probability, a measure of the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence, appears to facilitate noun learning (H. L. Storkel, 2001). Nouns and verbs, however, tend to differ in rate of acquisition, indicating that word-learning mechanisms may differ across grammatical class. The purpose of the current study was to examine the effect…

In this note we consider an experiment involving an urn and k balls with numbers 1, 2, 3, ..., k. The experiment consists of drawing n balls either with replacement or without replacement. We note some surprising results.

Using longitudinal data from the National Survey on Child and Adolescent Well-Being (NSCAW), this study investigates entry into intensive or restrictive settings during a 36-month study period. Specifically, this analysis examines entry into treatment foster care, group homes, residential treatment, and inpatient psychiatric care for youth placed…

Causal inference is an important, controversial topic in the social sciences, where it is difficult to conduct experiments or measure and control for all confounding variables. To address this concern, the present study presents a probability index to assess the robustness of a causal inference to the impact of a confounding variable. The…

As part of a discussion on Monte Carlo methods, which outlines how to use probability expectations to approximate the value of a definite integral. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on this technique and then to show several examples using visual basic as a programming tool. It is an interesting method because it combines two branches of…

This activity introduces students to the need for and rationale of hypothesis testing, using a basketball scenario familiar to even the most casual of fans.

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to differentiate effects of phonotactic probability, the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence, and neighborhood density, the number of words that sound similar to a given word, on adult word learning. A second purpose was to determine what aspect of word learning (viz., triggering learning, formation…