Games are promoted as examples for classroom discussion of stationary Markov chains. In a game context Markov chain terminology and results are made concrete, interesting, and entertaining. Game length for several-player games such as "Hi Ho! Cherry-O" and "Chutes and Ladders" is investigated and new, simple formulas are given. Slight…

The accuracy of the Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure, Gibbs sampling, was considered for estimation of item and ability parameters of the one-parameter logistic model. Four data sets were analyzed to evaluate the Gibbs sampling procedure. Data sets were also analyzed using methods of conditional maximum likelihood, marginal maximum likelihood,…

Uses longitudinal study of differences between boys and girls in levels of mathematics and science achievement across grades 7 through 10 to extend hierarchical modeling to allow for regression among latent variables using a fully Bayesian approach. (Contains 30 references.) (PKP)

Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the ''hot hand'' in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to…

A technique to study combined influence of environmental and genetic factors on the base of changes in phenotype distributions is presented. Histograms are exploited as base analyzed characteristics. A continuous time, discrete state Markov process with piece-wise constant interstate transition rates is associated with evolution of each histogram.…

This paper presents the development of the fusion model skills diagnosis system (fusion model system), which can help integrate standardized testing into the learning process with both skills-level examinee parameters for modeling examinee skill mastery and skills-level item parameters, giving information about the diagnostic power of the test.…

For complex educational assessments, there is an increasing use of "item families," which are groups of related items. However, calibration or scoring for such an assessment requires fitting models that take into account the dependence structure inherent among the items that belong to the same item family. C. Glas and W. van der Linden…

Educational assessments that exploit advances in technology and cognitive psychology can produce observations and pose student models that outstrip familiar test-theoretic models and analytic methods. Bayesian inference networks (BINs), which include familiar models and techniques as special cases, can be used to manage belief about students'…

Methodology which can be used to evaluate cyclic trends in sequential data are discussed. Examples and suggestions for teaching using this method are provided. A list of 25 references is included. (CW)

Uses continuous-time stochastic models, mainly based on semi-Markov chains, to derive user state transition patterns, both in rates and in probabilities, in a Web-based information system. Describes search sessions from transaction logs of the University of California's MELVYL library catalog system and discusses sequential dependency. (Author/LRW)

Latent class analysis (LCA) provides a means of identifying a mixture of subgroups in a population measured by multiple categorical indicators. Latent transition analysis (LTA) is a type of LCA that facilitates addressing research questions concerning stage-sequential change over time in longitudinal data. Both approaches have been used with…

The challenges of modeling students' performance in computer-based interactive assessments include accounting for multiple aspects of knowledge and skill that arise in different situations and the conditional dependencies among multiple aspects of performance. This article describes a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating cognitive models…

The authors present a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parameter estimation procedure for the generalized graded unfolding model (GGUM) and compare it to the marginal maximum likelihood (MML) approach implemented in the GGUM2000 computer program, using simulated and real personality data. In the simulation study, test length, number of response…

The use of hierarchical models in social science research is discussed, with emphasis on causal inference and consideration of the limitations of hierarchical models. The increased use of Gibbs sampling and other Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods in the application of hierarchical models is recommended. (SLD)

When repeated observations are taken at equal time intervals, a simple form of a stationary time series structure may be fitted to the observations. Use of correction factors is discussed. A computer simulation method is used to investigate power advantages of fitting a serial correlation pattern to repeated observations. (TJH)