ERIC Number: EJ1473565
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2025-May
Pages: 33
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0049-1241
EISSN: EISSN-1552-8294
Available Date: 0000-00-00
Comparing Methods for Estimating Demographics in Racially Polarized Voting Analyses
Ari Decter-Frain1; Pratik Sachdeva2; Loren Collingwood3; Hikari Murayama4; Juandalyn Burke5; Matt Barreto6; Scott Henderson7; Spencer Wood8; Joshua Zingher9
Sociological Methods & Research, v54 n2 p706-738 2025
We consider the cascading effects of researcher decisions throughout the process of quantifying racially polarized voting (RPV). We contrast three methods of estimating precinct racial composition, Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), fully Bayesian BISG, and Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP), and two algorithms for performing ecological inference (EI), King's EI and EI:RxC using eiCompare. Using data from two different elections we identify circumstances in which different combinations of methods produce divergent results, comparing against ground-truth data where available. We first find that BISG outperforms CVAP at estimating racial composition, though fully Bayesian BISG does not yield further improvements. Next, in a statewide election, we find that all combinations of methods yield similarly reliable estimates of RPV. However, county-level analyses and results from a non-partisan school board election reveal that BISG and CVAP produce divergent estimates of Black preferences in elections with low turnout and few precincts. Our results suggest that methodological choices can meaningfully alter conclusions about RPV, particularly in smaller, low-turnout elections.
Descriptors: Voting, Computation, Racial Composition, Bayesian Statistics, Statistical Inference, Elections, Statistical Analysis
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: Georgia; New York
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Author Affiliations: 1Brooks School of Public Policy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA; 2Social Science Data Laboratory (D-Lab), University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA; 3Political Science, University of New Mexico College of Arts and Sciences, Albuquerque, NM, USA; 4Energy and Resources Group, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA; 5Biomedical Informatics and Medical Education, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA; 6Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA; 7Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington College of the Environment, Seattle, WA, USA; 8EarthLab, University of Washington College of the Environment, Seattle, WA, USA; 9Political Science and Geography, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA