There exists a variety of interval estimators for the overall treatment effect in a random-effects meta-analysis. A recent literature review summarizing existing methods suggested that in most situations, the Hartung-Knapp/Sidik-Jonkman (HKSJ) method was preferable. However, a quantitative comparison of those methods in a common simulation study…

Conventional estimators for indirect effects using a difference in coefficients and product of coefficients produce the same results for continuous outcomes. However, for binary outcomes, the difference in coefficient estimator systematically underestimates the indirect effects because of a scaling problem. One solution is to standardize…

Commonly used machine learning applications seem to relate to big data. This article provides a gentle review of machine learning and shows why machine learning can be applied to small data too. An example of applying machine learning to screen irregularity reports is presented. In the example, the support vector machine and multinomial naïve…

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a key computational tool in Bayesian statistics, but it can be challenging to monitor the convergence of an iterative stochastic algorithm. In this paper we show that the convergence diagnostic [R-hat] of Gelman and Rubin (1992) has serious flaws. Traditional [R-hat] will fail to correctly diagnose convergence failures…

This tutorial uses publicly available data from drug makers and the Food and Drug Administration to guide learners to estimate the confidence intervals of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy rates with a Bayesian framework. Under the classical approach, there is no probability associated with a parameter, and the meaning of confidence intervals can be…

The What Works Clearinghouse (WWC) seeks to provide practitioners information about "what works in education." One challenge in understanding "what works" to practitioners is that effect sizes--the degree to which an intervention produces positive (or negative) outcomes--are not comparable across different interventions, in…

Background: Power analysis and sample size planning are key components in designing cluster randomized trials (CRTs), a common study design to test treatment effect by randomizing clusters or groups of individuals. Sample size determination in two-level CRTs requires knowledge of more than one design parameter, such as the effect size and the…

If cues from different sensory modalities share the same cause, their information can be integrated to improve perceptual precision. While it is well established that adults exploit sensory redundancy by integrating cues in a Bayes optimal fashion, whether children under 8 years of age combine sensory information in a similar fashion is still…

This manuscript builds on a novel, automatic, freely-available Bayesian approach to extract information in abstracts and titles to classify research topics by quartile. This approach is demonstrated for all N= 149,129 ISI-indexed publications in biological sciences journals during 2017. A Bayesian multinomial inverse regression approach is used to…

In standardized educational testing, test items are reused in multiple test administrations. To ensure the validity of test scores, the psychometric properties of items should remain unchanged over time. In this article, we consider the sequential monitoring of test items, in particular, the detection of abrupt changes to their psychometric…

In the context of Bayesian factor analysis, it is possible to compute plausible values, which might be used as covariates or predictors or to provide individual scores for the Bayesian latent variables. Previous simulation studies ascertained the validity of mean plausible values by the mean squared difference of the mean plausible values and the…

Purpose: Our audio--vocal system involves a negative feedback system that functions to correct for fundamental frequency (f[subscript 0]) errors in production. Therefore, automatic and opposing responses appear when an unexpected change in voice pitch is present in auditory feedback. This study explores following responses to pitch perturbation in…

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in science, but scientific knowledge is often represented to the public and in educational contexts as certain and immutable. This contrast can foster distrust when scientific knowledge develops in a way that people perceive as a reversals, as we have observed during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on research in…

Reward is thought to attenuate forgetting through the automatic effect of dopamine on hippocampal memory traces. Here we report a conceptual replication of previous results where we did not observe this effect of reward. Participants encoded eight lists of pictures and recalled picture content immediately or the next day. They were informed that…

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior uncertainty. And, even if the most important modes can be found, it is difficult to evaluate their relative weights in…