The best check on the preposterous claims of crisis rhetoric is an appreciation of the nature of risk analysis and how it functions in argumentation. The use of risk analysis is common in policy debate. While the stock issues paradigm focused the debate exclusively on the affirmative case, the advent of policy systems analysis has transformed…

Basic issues in understanding Item Response Theory (IRT), or Latent Trait Theory, measurement models are discussed. These theories have gained popularity because of their promise to provide greater precision and control in measurement involving both achievement and attitude instruments. IRT models implement probabilistic techniques that yield…

It is shown that common factors are not subject to indeterminancy to the extent that has been claimed (Guttman, 1955), because the measure of indeterminancy that has been adopted is ill-founded. (Author/RC)

Individuals often estimate the probability of future events by the ease with which they can recall or cognitively construct relevant instances. Previous research has not precisely identified the cognitive processes mediating this "availability heuristic." Two potential mediators (imagery of the event, perceived reasons or causes for the…

The probability of obtaining a significant statistic, using the parametric analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and the rank transform ANCOVA, was estimated for three conditions defined in terms of conditional distributions for two groups. The distributions were both normal, both skewed in the same direction but to different degrees, or both skewed to…

The theory of stochastic processes deals with systems that develop over time in accordance with probabilistic laws. The basic concepts involved in two types of continuous-time processes are the idea of a constant probability of occurrence in the point event process and the extensions necessary for the discrete state process. The required…

Confirms previously published research in concluding that specialty words tend to possess frequency distributions which cannot be described by a single Poisson distribution. (Author/PF)

Shows how simple probability theory can serve to remove the bias from a sample so that estimates of total yearly circulation and circulation distribution can be calculated from circulation desk data. (Author/PF)

The small-world problem revolves around the tracing of a line of acquaintances linking any two persons chosen at random. Statistical analysis of data from two experimental studies of the problem and estimation of parameters in two previously proposed models is discussed along with the models' goodness of fit. (Author/RC)

Examines the application of the Rasch simple logistic model to analogy test items. (RC)

The interest in developmental sequences and learning hierarchies is growing. One approach to the study of such sequences is to gather data on several variables, each of which corresponds to a stage, step, or phase in the sequence and to examine the associations between the variables as displayed in a contingency table. If the variables are…

THIS NOTE IS CONCERNED WITH IDEAS AND PROBLEMS INVOLVED IN CROSS-CLASSIFICATION OF OBSERVATIONS ON A GIVEN POPULATION, ESPECIALLY TWO-DIMENSIONAL CROSS-CLASSIFICATIONS. MAIN OBJECTIVES OF THE NOTE INCLUDE--(1) ESTABLISHMENT OF A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR CHARACTERIZATION AND COMPARISON OF CROSS-CLASSIFICATIONS, (2) DISCUSSION OF EXISTING METHODS…

A Monte Carlo investigation of Markov chain matrices was conducted to create empirical distributions for two statistics created from the transition matrices. Curve fitting techniques developed by Karl Pearson were used to deduce if theoretical equations could be fit to the two sets of distributions. The set of distributions which describe the…

A point of view is presented concerning the psychological concept of subjective probability, both to study its relation to the corresponding mathematical and philosophical concepts and to provide a framework for the rigorous investigation of problems unique to psychology. In order to do this the empirical implications of axiom systems for…