Assumptions underlying Cooper's exact probability test for Likert-type scales are examined and found not always to hold true. A modification of his test is derived, differences in results obtained with the two tests are presented, and the significance of the results discussed. (KR)

A computer program for PET users is presented that simulates a probability machine. (MP)

This discussion of the results from the probability questions of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) identifies probability as an area of serious concern. (MP) Aspect of National Assessment (NAEP) dealt with in this document: Results (Interpretation).

The relationship between quantitative predictor variables and the probability of occurrence of one or more levels of a qualitative criterion variable can be analyzed by quantal response techniques. This paper presents and discusses two quantal response models, comparing them to multiple linear regression and discriminant analysis. (Author/JKS)

Four different methods for estimating the proportions of testees properly classified as having mastered or not mastered test content are examined, using data from the Scholastic Aptitude Test. All four methods prove reasonably accurate and all show some bias under certain conditions. (JKS)

The focus of this paper is an empirical illustration of how distorted subjective probabilities for sex of next birth might influence fertility behavior. Recent models of the fertility decision-making process are provided. (Author/MA)

The author uses mathematical models that involve only algebra and a few basic ideas in discrete probability to describe the frequency of conception in large human societies. A number of calculations which can be done by students as exercises are given. (MN)

Three experiments which use probabilities to approximate pi are described. (JT)

This biography of the mathematician Girolamo Cardons (1500-1576) sketches his life and discusses his mathematical works, which were controversial at the time. (SD)

Vector sum of a white noise in an unknown hyperspace and an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process in an unknown line is observed through sharp linear test functions over a finite time span. Parameters associated with white noise are determinable and index measure-equivalence classes in relevant sample space. Intraclass relative density provides a basis for…

Because previous studies had suggestd that Down Syndrome subjects did not respond to changes in directional probability within a complex motor task as did other retarded subjects, 14 Down Syndrome 18-year-olds were given training relative to the directional probability component of the task. Performance was improved but primarily in terms of…

Examined utility of probability statistics to determine optimal symptoms for making differential diagnosis among childhood attention deficit and conduct disorders. Assessed positive and negative predictive power (symptom presence or absence) in psychiatric interviews of 76 clinic-referred boys. Some symptoms proved optimal as inclusion criteria,…

The probability of selecting two matching socks is discussed. (MNS)

Research on what elementary school students know about probability prior to instruction and what they can learn about probability is concisely reviewed. Many references are included. (MNS)

Introduces a new model of viewing documents based on citing-cited relationship between them. Using Bayes' decision theory, it is shown how source document may be indexed and weighted by relevant cited document features, corresponding to one pass relevance feedback Model 1 (probabilistic indexing) or Model 2 (probabilistic retrieval). (24…