Proposes a new training approach to teach effective statistical thinking and describes two studies where people were trained to solve tasks involving conjunctive and conditional probabilities using a frequency grid. Discusses frequency format versus probability format, and describes results that suggest the importance of learning by doing.…

Describes an activity on probability to serve mathematics and science objectives while including the use of art in a game. (ASK)

Discusses the nature of information measuring its distance from the perfect theory or from the right answer to the information seeking question that led to it. The measures here are provided by the Tichy-Hilpinen-Oddie-Niiniluoto-likeness measures introduced in the context of the philosophical problem of verisimilitude. (JAK)

This article addresses issues in model building and statistical inference in the context of student modeling. The use of probability-based reasoning to explicate hypothesized and empirical relationships and to structure inference in the context of proportional reasoning tasks is discussed. Ideas are illustrated with an example concerning…

Three experiments examined whether preschoolers viewed outcomes of familiar causes of illness as definite or probabilistic. Findings indicated that children judged that a common cause would affect all group members the same, and believed they could definitely predict illness outcomes in a single case, contrasting with adults' variable and…

Suggests an approach in courses for mathematics majors and minors similar to the popular approach used in applied courses--using student projects. Describes strategy and implementation of the projects and provides examples from student projects on statistics. (Author/ASK)

Discusses methods to be used in an adaptive filtering task, in which incoming documents are routed to users according to stored profiles. Highlights include decision thresholds to help in the retrieval decision; probability of relevance; calibration and logistic regression; feedback; and examples in the Okapi text retrieval system. (LRW)

A review of 32 epidemiological surveys of autism and pervasive developmental disorders found four surveys yielded estimates for childhood disintegrative disorder (CDD) ranging from 1.1 to 6.4 per 100,000. It is concluded that CDD is very rare and its prevalence is 60 times less than that of autistic disorder. (Contains references.) (Author/CR)

Explains a non-standard definition of an ellipse familiar to astronomers and workers in celestial mechanics but which is not usually given in undergraduate text books on mathematics. (MM)

Extends the recent work on the veracity effect in deception detection. Explains the probabilistic nature of a receiver's accuracy in detecting deception and analyzes a receiver's detection of deception in terms of set theory and conditional probability. Finds that accuracy is shown to be a function of the relevant conditional probability and the…

The authors describe a game that students can play on the first day of a game theory class. The game introduces the 4 essential elements of any game and is designed so that its sequel, also played on the first day of class, has students playing the well-known Monty Hall game, which raises the question: Should you switch doors? By implementing a…

This research assessed the effectiveness of a family-centered approach to out-of-home care in reunifying children with their families by comparing differential exit rates of children whose families received family-centered services with children whose families received routine child welfare services. The sample included 472 children who were in…

An inventory replenishment policy is developed for a deteriorating item and price-dependent demand. The rate of deterioration is taken to be time-proportional and the time to deterioration is assumed to follow a two-parameter Weibull distribution. A power law form of the price dependence of demand is considered. The model is solved analytically…

A sample of 134 sixth-grade students who were using the Connected Mathematics curriculum were administered an open-ended item entitled, Vet Club (Balanced Assessment, 2000). This paper explores the role of misconceptions and naive conceptions in the acquisition of statistical thinking for middle grades students. Students exhibited misconceptions…

In order to make effective decisions based on probability, one must be able to distinguish between the objective-factual aspects of the decision and the subjective aspects. This study examines the hypothesis that academic studies contribute to the development of the ability to make such distinctions in day-to-day decision-making. Some 940…