A rational model of human categorization behavior is presented that assumes that categorization reflects the derivation of optimal estimates of the probability of unseen features of objects. A case is made that categorization behavior can be predicted from the structure of the environment. (SLD)

Presents a theoretical rationale for employing a form of information retrieval algorithm that helps searchers better navigate through large document collections by continually revising probability estimates for document subsets. The algorithm avoids assumptions of index term independence and predicts relevance more accurately with increasing…

The historical development of probability theory is traced from its early origins in games of chance through its mathematical foundations in the work of Pascal and Fermat. The roots of statistics are also presented beginning with early actuarial developments through the work of Laplace, Gauss, and others. (MDH)

How to measure growth in knowledge and ability over time in curriculum research is explored. Two broad classes of probabilistic models are considered, the Rasch model and latent class models with their associated generalizations. Potential of both classes for measuring categorical change is discussed. (SLD)

Presents a theoretical proposal of a methodology for the teaching of probability theory. Discusses the importance of the epistemological approach of Lakatos and the perspective of the conceptual change. Discusses research using a proposed didactic method with Spanish high school students (N=6). Concludes that significant differences on all…

Explores a birthday-related problem that asks about the probability of having people with the same birthday in a room. Utilizes spreadsheets to work on the problem and discusses related teaching issues. Contains 20 references. (ASK)

Suggests that when choosing one's actions in many real world contexts, bare-bone tactics work at least as well as complex statistical formulas. Also, simple strategies wring insight out of shifting environments with much greater ease than do intricate probability equations. (CCM)

Presents activities that allow primary grade students to develop specific thinking strategies for basic facts such as counting on, using doubles, and making 10 in problem-solving settings. Discusses other topics such as probability, spatial sense, and money. Offers rich opportunities for reasoning and communication. (ASK)

Describes a classroom demonstration called the Gambler's Fallacy where students in an introductory psychology statistics class participate in simulated gambling using weekly results from professional football game outcomes over a 10 week period. Explains that the demonstration illustrates that random processes do not self-correct and statistical…

Examines the role of variation in statistics education. Describes a chance and data unit with a focus on variation that was conducted in three high school mathematics classes. (ASK)

Reports on (n=11) student attempts at 3 combinatorial questions focusing mainly on 3 aspects of strategy: (1) listing; (2) subdivision into cases; and (3) use or misuse of 4 standard formulas. (MKR)

Describes a lesson designed to teach the probabilistic topics of permutation and combinations in a constructivist manner. (ASK)

Describes a lesson in which students develop a knowledge of the principles of chance and apply them to real world events. (CCM)

Preference between forced choice and free choice in concurrent-chain schedules of reinforcement was investigated in pigeons after exposure to particular combinations of terminal links. In Experiment 1, in which terminal links always ended with reinforcers, one of three pairs of terminal links was arranged as preexposure: (a) both terminal links…

This paper discusses programs that clarify some statistical ideas often discussed yet poorly understood by students. The programs adopt the approach of demonstrating what is happening, rather than using the computer to do the work for the students (and hide the understanding). The programs demonstrate normal probability plots, overfitting of…