Decision theory is a useful method for assessing the effectiveness of the components of a course placement system. The effectiveness of placement tests or other variables in identifying underprepared students is described by the conditional probability of success in a standard course. Estimating the conditional probability of success is discussed.…

Uses a probability tree to predict the most likely wild card team for a National League Championship. (KHR)

Suggests ways for using data from championship tennis as a means for exploring probabilistic models, especially binomial probability. Examples include the probability of winning a service point and the probability of winning a service game using data from tables and graphs. (AIM)

A model is proposed to account for publication bias explicitly using a weight function that describes probability of publication for a particular study in terms of a selection parameter. A Bayesian analysis of this model using Gibbs sampling is conducted, and the model is applied to a published meta-analysis. (SLD)

Factors associated with the career move from teaching to educational administration were studied using nationally representative data from 4,800 teachers. Overall, socialization factors were salient for men and women, but a woman's predicted probability of becoming an administrator remained far below that of a man. (SLD)

Demonstrates the advantages of a p-value as compared with a standard significance test procedure. Contains examples in the discussion of testing the mean of a normal distribution and testing a probability of proportion. (DDR)

Describes how to use common dice numbered 1-6 for simple mathematical situations including probability. Presents a lesson using regular dice and specially marked dice to explore some of the concepts of probability. (KHR)

Reports on a study entailing the design, implementation, and evaluation of two versions of a teaching experiment that traced students' growth in probabilistic thinking. Students in the first version focused on analyses of small sample experimental data and sample space composition. Students in the second version made connections between…

Investigates and explores questions and activities related to using a calendar. Students explore number sense and operations, logical reasoning, data analysis, probability, and algebra. (Author/NB)

Presents an example from probability and statistics that ties together several topics including the mean and variance of a discrete random variable, the binomial distribution and its particular mean and variance, the sum of independent random variables, the mean and variance of the sum, and the central limit theorem. Uses Excel to illustrate these…

Discusses the interdependencies between parameter estimation and properties of probabilistic models, such as dependency assumptions, binary vs. nonbinary features, and estimation sample selection. An optimum estimation for binary features applicable to information retrieval is defined, a method for computing this estimation using empirical data is…

Presents examples illustrating how to teach statistics in connection with mathematical concepts. Describes using percentage problems and graphing problems in the classroom. (YP)

Describes the "Buffon's Needle" problem, which is calculating the probability that a needle will cross one of two separated lines. Calculates the probability when the length of the needle is greater than the space of the two lines. Provides an analytic solution and the results of a computer simulation. (YP)

Some uncomplicated illustrations of how probability yields results that seem in conflict with traditional intuition are given. (MNS)

Investigates the problem of finding the expected number of questions necessary to identify 1 out of a set of 30 attribute blocks. Solutions include the use of a tree diagram or a computer simulation. Generalizes the problem for increased numbers of attributes. (MDH)