Assuming errors of measurement are distributed binomially, this article reviews various procedures for constructing an interval for an individual's true number-correct score; presents two general interval estimation procedures for an individual's true scale score (i.e., normal approximation and endpoints conversion methods); compares various…

Objective: We explored whether people who become alcohol dependent at younger ages are more likely to seek alcohol-related help or treatment or experience chronic relapsing dependence. Methods: In 2001-2002 the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism completed a face-to-face interview survey with a multistage probability sample of 43…

We study a set of programs implemented in Philadelphia high schools that focus on boosting high school graduation, and especially college attendance, using data from the Philadelphia Educational Longitudinal Study (PELS). We examine the effects of these programs on a set of schooling-related outcomes during and after high school. The PELS data-set…

Proformative evaluation--first introduced in Scriven's (2006) "The great enigma: An evaluation design puzzle"--"is motivated, like formative evaluation, by the intention to improve something that is still developing, but unlike formative, the improvement is only possible by taking action, hence proactive instead of reactive, hence both, hence…

The "Connected Mathematics Project" ("CMP)" is a problem-centered mathematics curriculum designed for all students in grades 6-8. Each grade level of the curriculum is a full-year program and covers numbers, algebra, geometry/measurement, probability, and statistics. The program seeks to make connections within mathematics,…

Recent developments in cognitive psychology suggest models for knowledge and learning that often fall outside the realm of standard test theory. This paper concerns probability-based inference in terms of such models. The essential idea is to define a space of "student models"--simplified characterizations of students' knowledge, skill,…

When measures are taken on the same individual over time, it is difficult to determine whether observed differences are the result of changes in the person or changes in other facets of the measurement situation (e.g. interpretation of items or use of rating scale). This paper describes a method for disentangling changes in persons from changes in…

The normal curve has long been important in statistics. Most interval variables yield normal or quasi-normal distributions when data are collected from large samples, and the normal "Z" distribution is also used as a test statistic (e.g., to test differences between two means when sample size is large, since "t" approaches…

Four experiments investigated college students' judgments of inter-event contingency. Subjects were asked to judge the effect of a discrete response (tapping a wire) on the occurrence of a brief outcome (a radio's buzzing). Pairings of the possible event-state combinations were presented in a summary table, an unbroken time line, or a broken time…

Using license plates to generate random number pairs, students can calculate an approximate value for pi. The author views this approach as easier to understand than Buffon's needle. (SD)

A test of attitudes toward arguments based on varied levels of probability. (CH)

Children at many levels enjoy using spinners to explore probabilities and practice predicting, tabulating and graphing outcomes, and observing results. Directions for making spinners, descriptions of several activities, and sample worksheets are provided. (SD)

Replication is important to viable scientific inquiry; results that will not replicate or generalize are of very limited value. Statistical significance enables the researcher to reject or not reject the null hypothesis according to the sample results obtained, but statistical significance does not indicate the probability that results will be…

Methods of probability modeling to analyze rater agreement are described, emphasizing their basic similarities and viewing them as variants of a common methodology. Statistical techniques for analyzing agreement data are described to address questions such as how many opinions are required to make a medical diagnosis with necessary accuracy. Kappa…

This booklet resulted from a 1980 visit by the author, a Hungarian mathematics educator, to the Teachers' Center Project at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville. Included are activities and problems that make probablility concepts accessible to young children. The topics considered are: two probability games; choosing two beads; matching…