In a primer intended for the administrative professions, for the behavioral sciences, and for education, simulation and its various aspects are defined, illustrated, and explained. Man-model simulation, man-computer simulation, all-computer simulation, and analysis are discussed as techniques for studying object systems (parts of the "real…

The primary aim of this guide is to aid teachers in planning and preparing a senior high school mathematics course for students preparing for college work. It is divided into separate one-semester courses of seven chapters each. The first-semester course consists of a traditional approach to the introduction of trigonometry and trigonometric…

The previous theoretical development of the Poisson process as a strong model for the true-score theory of mental tests is discussed, and additional theoretical properties of the model from the standpoint of individual examinees are developed. The paper introduces the Erlang process as a family of test theory models and shows in the context of…

"Environmental measures" in the forms of probability inductions are conceptualized to express the relationship between environmental conditions (temperature, illumination, etc.) and human satisfaction levels for comfort and utility. An "evaluation" method is hypothesized as a way to gather the data needed to make environmental measure probability…

The contention is made that group performance data are useful in the construction and interpretation of criterion-referenced tests. The Mastery Learning Test Model, which was developed for analyzing criterion-referenced test data, is described. An estimate of the proportion of students in an instructional group having achieved the referent…

The reliability and validity of a tailored testing procedure based on the simple logistic model was determined for an achievement test in statistics and measurement. The test was administered on a CRT terminal to students from graduate and undergraduate measurement courses. Equivalent form reliability over a one-week interval was found to be 0.595…

This paper briefly reviews how subjects enhance performance by favoring some stimuli over others. The author calls the mechanism by which this is achieved "expectancy", a generic term including preparatory set, behavioral hypotheses, orienting reflex, and anticipatory goal responses. Temporal and event expectancy are contrasted. Verbal prediction…

Compared four groups of men from a Danish birth cohort: those at high risk for serious criminal involvement (with severely criminal fathers) who avoided and who evidenced serious criminal behavior, and those at low risk (with noncriminal fathers) who evidenced or did not evidence criminal behavior. Found the mean intelligence quotient score of the…

Game theory is appropriate as a topic for an honors seminar for high school students. Matrices provide a model for analyzing certain situations involving conflict, and probability theory can be used to determine the best strategies for the players. Variations on the ancient game of morra are discussed. (MNS)

Two easily computed test statistics are proposed for testing the equality of two correlated proportions when some observations are missing on both responses. The performance of these tests in terms of size and power is compared with other tests by means of Monte Carlo simulations. (Author/BS)

Introduces two data distortion methods (Frequency-Imposed Distortion, Frequency-Imposed Probability Distortion) and uses a Monte Carlo study to compare their performance with that of other distortion methods (Point Distortion, Probability Distortion). Indications that data generated by these two methods produce accurate statistics and protect…

Proposes approach to integrating Boolean and statistical systems where Boolean queries are interpreted as a means of specifying term dependencies in relevant set of documents. Highlights include series of retrieval experiments designed to test retrieval strategy based on term dependence model and relation of results to other work. (18 references)…

Activities for a 10-day unit on probability and statistics are described, with preplanning ideas included. Spinners, dice, cards, wheels, and other materials are used in a variety of games. (MNS)

This manual is intended to provide guidance for the protection of school buildings and their occupants from natural disasters, and the economic losses and social disruption caused by building damage and destruction. This volume concentrates on grade schools, K-12. This publication covers earthquakes, floods, and high winds. Its intended audience…

The sample assessment items in this volume are sorted according to the strands of number and operations, algebra, geometry, measurement, and data analysis and probability. Because one goal of assessment is to determine students' abilities to communicate mathematically, the writing team suggests ways to extend or modify multiple-choice and…