Mental model (Johnson-Laird, 2001) and probabilistic theories (Oaksford & Chater, 2009) claim to provide distinct explanations of human reasoning. However, the dual strategy model of reasoning suggests that this distinction corresponds to different reasoning strategies, termed "counterexample" and "statistical,"…

Children have a robust social preference for people similar to them, like those who share their language, accent, and race. In the present research, we show that this preference can diminish when children consider who they want to learn about. Across three experiments, 4- to 6-year-olds (total N = 160; 74 female, 86 male, from the Waterloo region…

Children are sensitive to their own and others' epistemic states and use these to guide their learning and communication. Here, we systematically examined children's use of epistemic states to make diagnostic social inferences. Specifically, we investigated children's group membership inferences based on what others do and do not know and what…

Estimation of causal effects requires making comparisons across groups of observations exposed and not exposed to a a treatment or cause (intervention, program, drug, etc). To interpret differences between groups causally we need to ensure that they have been constructed in such a way that the comparisons are "fair." This can be…

Narrative inquiry is a type of qualitative research that explores human experiences through lived or told stories to understand a phenomenon. Narrative researchers collect data through spoken or written stories and life experiences of an individual (subject). The data is examined in chronological order to understand the meaning of the phenomenon…

In learning about the world children must not only make inferences based on minimal evidence, but must deal with conflicting evidence and question those initial inferences when they appear to be wrong. Four experiments (N = 144) found that young children were significantly more likely to revise their initial inferences when conflicting evidence…

Pseudocontingencies are inferences of correlations between variables, like two options and two outcomes, drawn on the basis of their skewed base rates covarying across a third variable (e.g., two contexts). Here, we investigated the effect of pseudocontingency inference on choice behavior. When choices between two options are not based on the…

A common divide-and-conquer approach for Bayesian computation with big data is to partition the data, perform local inference for each piece separately, and combine the results to obtain a global posterior approximation. While being conceptually and computationally appealing, this method involves the problematic need to also split the prior for…

Over the course of the introductory calculus-based physics course, students are often expected to build conceptual understanding and develop and refine skills in problem solving and qualitative inferential reasoning. Many of the research-based materials developed over the past 30 years by the physics education research community use sequences of…

Quasi-experimental methods are a cornerstone of applied social science, providing critical answers to causal questions that inform policy and practice. Although open science principles have influenced experimental research norms across the social sciences, these practices are rarely implemented in quasi-experimental research. In this paper, we…

Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) is a relatively young method of causal inference that continues to diffuse across the social sciences. However, recent methodological research has found the conservative (QCA-CS) and the intermediate solution type (QCA-IS) of QCA to fail fundamental tests of correctness. Even under conditions otherwise ideal…

Takers of educational tests often receive proficiency levels instead of or in addition to scaled scores. For example, proficiency levels are reported for the Advanced Placement (AP®) and U.S. Medical Licensing examinations. Technical difficulties and other unforeseen events occasionally lead to missing item scores and hence to incomplete data on…

Purpose: This study aims to describe the pedagogical content knowledge (PCK) of a kindergarten educator who implements a lesson plan about informal inferential reasoning designed in a lesson study group. Design/methodology/approach: To this end, we analyzed teaching interventions in two kindergarten lessons focused on the playful task of tossing…

This study investigated the effects of semantic transparency of Chinese suon Chinese as a second language (CSL) learners' incidental learning of word meanings in sentence-level reading and passage-level reading. The accuracy of the learners' lexical inferencing was compared among various types of words (transparent, semi-transparent, and opaque…

A Prolog program consists of a set of facts and rules rather than imperative statements, commonly used in most other programming languages. Therefore, the Prolog language is used to encode logic, from which the inference engine deduces logical conclusions. In this article, we argue that the use of the Prolog language can be useful to help students…