Introduction: The rapid growth of the Internet has modified the boundaries of information acquisition (tracking) in environmental scanning. Despite the numerous advantages of this new medium, information overload is an enormous problem for Internet scanners. In order to help them, intelligent agents (i.e., autonomous, automated software agents…

In the social sciences, evaluating the effectiveness of a program or intervention often leads researchers to draw causal inferences from observational research designs. Bias in estimated causal effects becomes an obvious problem in such settings. This article presents the Heckman Model as an approach sometimes applied to observational data for the…

Assessed 3- to 7-year-old children's sensitivity to logical necessity by contrasting performance in insufficient and sufficient information conditions. A search task used in Experiments 1 and 2 allowed children to search for additional information in insufficient conditions. A judgement condition used in Experiment 2 required a "can't tell"…

The use of finite intersection tests (FIT) to unify methods for simultaneous inference and to test orthogonal contrasts is discussed. Multiple comparison procedures that combine FIT with sequential hypothesis testing are illustrated, and a simulation strategy is presented to generate values needed for FIT methods. (SLD)

Investigates the time course of predictive inferences by using naming and word reading times. Explains the setup and results of two different experiments. Suggests that predictive inferences occur online, but require time to be drawn and are initially encoded to some degree, but completed later. (PA)

Assesses various Fuhriman, Burlingame, Kivlighan, and Richards articles (1990) as interesting and informative, but offers two criticisms. First, authors made same vocabulary/same meaning assumption about articles they reviewed and did not discuss differences in experiences and truths that might lie behind same vocabulary. Second, they did not…

Investigates good and poor readers' ability to answer text-based inference and paraphrase questions after reading two narrative stories and two expository passages. Finds that expository passages are significantly more difficult for children to understand than narrative stories, and that good readers read texts faster than poor readers. (MM)

Sixty undergraduate college students took part in two experiments designed to test the hypothesis that the involvement of inference in remembering leads to overconfidence. Discusses the response-independence model, which is appropriate to retrieval, and the response-dependence model, which applies to inference. (DR)

Data are reviewed that suggest that there is no need to invoke a multiple-model theory of reasoning to explain the difficulty people encounter deriving valid conclusions to certain inference problems using doubly quantified sentences. Implications for theories of how people understand multiply quantified sentences are discussed. (SLD)

Presents a fully Bayesian analysis for the Probability Matrix Decomposition (PMD) model using the Gibbs sampler. Identifies the advantages of this approach and illustrates the approach by applying the PMD model to opinions of respondents from different countries concerning the possibility of contracting AIDS in a specific situation. (SLD)

The current experiment investigated the effect of differential training histories on responses to a 5-term linear chain of nonsense syllables (described here with sequential, alphabetical characters; A [is less than] B [is less than] C [is less than] D [is less than] E) across unreinforced probe trials. Participants' responses to nonarbitrary…

The assumptions underlying item response theory (IRT) models may be expressed as a set of equality and inequality constraints on the parameters of a latent class model. It is well known that the same assumptions imply that the parameters of the manifest distribution have to satisfy a more complicated set of inequality constraints which, however,…

Framing effects are said to occur when equivalent frames lead to different choices. However, the equivalence in question has been incompletely conceptualized. In a new normative analysis of framing effects, we complete the conceptualization by introducing the notion of information equivalence. Information equivalence obtains when no…

In this note, a coin tossing experiment which leads to three discrete distributions is discussed.

The commentaries include a wealth of insightful and interesting observations and suggestions, and I appreciate each author taking the time to comment on my efforts. In responding to their suggestions, I am inclined to develop a few general points raised in the commentaries a bit further.