When estimating causal effects, unmeasured confounding and model misspecification are both potential sources of bias. We propose a method to simultaneously address both issues in the form of a semi-parametric sensitivity analysis. In particular, our approach incorporates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees into a two-parameter sensitivity analysis…

The informativity of a computational model of language acquisition is directly related to how closely it approximates the actual acquisition task, sometimes referred to as the model's "cognitive plausibility." We suggest that though every computational model necessarily idealizes the modeled task, an informative language acquisition…

Three studies were jointly conducted by the Office of Research Administration and Office of Proposal Development at Tufts University to evaluate the services within each respective office. The studies featured assessments that used, respectively, (1) quantitative metrics; (2) a quantitative satisfaction survey with limited qualitative questions;…

Briggs and Peck (2015) have written a thought-provoking article on the use of learning progressions in the design of vertical scales that support inferences about student growth. Organized learning models, including learning trajectories, learning progressions, and learning maps have been the subject of research for many years, but more recently…

This article summarizes a conceptual framework and simple mathematical methods of estimating the probability that one event was a necessary cause of another, as interpreted by lawmakers. We show that the fusion of observational and experimental data can yield informative bounds that, under certain circumstances, meet legal criteria of causation.…

Stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics have the primary aim of statistical inference about processes of network change, but may be regarded as a kind of agent-based models. Similar to many other agent-based models, they are based on local rules for actor behavior. Different from many other agent-based models, by including elements of…

This article presents a simple approach to making quick sample size estimates for basic hypothesis tests. Although there are many sources available for estimating sample sizes, methods are not often integrated across statistical tests, levels of measurement of variables, or effect sizes. A few parameters are required to estimate sample sizes and…

Graduate students in political science come to the discipline interested in exploring important political questions, such as "What causes war?" or "What policies promote economic growth?" However, they typically do not arrive prepared to address those questions using quantitative methods. Graduate methods instructors must…

Statistical inference relies heavily on the concept of sampling distributions. However, sampling distributions are difficult to teach. We present a series of short animations that are story-based, with associated assessments. We hope that our contribution can be useful as a tool to teach sampling distributions in the introductory statistics…

Recent research shows that the judged likelihood of properties of modified nouns ("baby ducks have webbed feet") is reduced relative to judgments for unmodified nouns ("ducks have webbed feet"). This modification effect has been taken as evidence both for and against the idea that combined concepts automatically inherit…

Humans have a unique ability to generate novel norms. Faced with the knowledge that there are hungry children in Somalia, we easily and naturally infer that we ought to donate to famine relief charities. Although a contentious and lively issue in metaethics, such inference from "is" to "ought" has not been systematically…

The concept of growth is at the foundation of the policy and practice around systems of educational accountability. It is also at the foundation of what teachers concern themselves with on a daily basis as they help children learn. Yet there is a disconnect between the criterion-referenced intuitions that parents and teachers have for what it…

How likely is the glass to break, given that it is heated? The present study asks questions such as this with or without the premise "if the glass is heated, it breaks." A reduced problem (question without premise) measures the statistical dependency (conditional probability) of an event to occur, given that another has occurred. Such…

Conventional implicatures are omnipresent in daily life communication but experimental research on this topic is sparse, especially research with children. The aim of this study was to investigate if eight- to twelve-year-old children spontaneously make the conventional implicature induced by "but," "so," and…

When fitting hierarchical regression models, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation has computational (and, for some users, philosophical) advantages compared to full Bayesian inference, but when the number of groups is small, estimates of the covariance matrix (S) of group-level varying coefficients are often degenerate. One can do better, even from…