The presidential election that frequently features the results of political polling is presented. These polls attempt to estimate the popular vote that each candidate would receive as they could predict who would win the elections.

The recognition heuristic is a prime example of a boundedly rational mind tool that rests on an evolved capacity, recognition, and exploits environmental structures. When originally proposed, it was conjectured that no other probabilistic cue reverses the recognition-based inference (D. G. Goldstein & G. Gigerenzer, 2002). More recent studies…

A special but common type of scenario is one in which a company has a promotion that is designed to make the customer purchase more of their product than they otherwise might. Although this can be aimed specifically at children, it really applies to all persons. The basic premise is that the company issues a "set" of different items or…

The author derives the probability that price discrimination improves social welfare, using a simple model of third-degree price discrimination assuming two independent linear demands. The probability that price discrimination raises social welfare increases as the preferences or incomes of consumer groups become more heterogeneous. He derives the…

In Experiment 1, 12 senior citizens from the community were trained with 18 sets of conditional discriminations. Training included 2-, 3-, and 4-choice matching-to-sample (MTS) configurations in linear series (LS), many-to-one (MTO), and one-to-many (OTM) training structures. Training structure order was counterbalanced across participants. The…

A discussion on the use of group question on final exams is presented to approach work units on probability or counting. Where it is easy to find problems that are both nonroutine and will stretch students minds a bit. The group question is also the fist part of the exam, which involves preliminary discussion and planning, division of labor, and…

Phonotactic probability, neighborhood density, and onset density were manipulated in 4 picture-naming tasks. Experiment 1 showed that pictures of words with high phonotactic probability were named more quickly than pictures of words with low phonotactic probability. This effect was consistent over multiple presentations of the pictures (Experiment…

Format dependence implies that assessment of the same subjective probability distribution produces different conclusions about over- or underconfidence depending on the assessment format. In 2 experiments, the authors demonstrate that the overconfidence bias that occurs when participants produce intervals for an uncertain quantity is almost…

Given a set of urns, each filled with a mix of black chips and white chips, what is the probability of drawing a black chip from the last urn after some sequential random shifts of chips among the urns? The Total Probability Formula (TPF) is the common tool to solve such a problem. However, when the number of urns is more than two and the number…

This article describes an illustration of Bayesian inference that has proved popular with students.

This article demonstrates that the lower bound for the most deviant Z score and the upper bound for the sample standard deviation are attained simultaneously.

This article examines the statistical determinants of risk preference. In a meta-analysis of animal risk preference (foraging birds and insects), the coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of risk per unit of return, predicts choices far better than outcome variance, the risk measure of normative models. In a meta-analysis of human risk…

Background: Previous work has inconsistently reported difficulties with response reversal/extinction in children with psychopathic tendencies. Method: We tested the hypothesis that the degree of impairment seen in children with psychopathic tendencies is a function of the salience of contingency change. We investigated the performance of children…

Despite its intuitive appeal and popularity, Thorndike's constant ratio (CR) model for unbiased selection is inherently inconsistent in "n"-free selection. Satisfaction of the condition for unbiased selection, when formulated in terms of success/acceptance probabilities, usually precludes satisfaction by the converse probabilities of…

The multiple segment factorial vignette design (MSFV) combines elements of experimental designs and probability sampling with the inductive, exploratory approach of qualitative research. MSFVs allow researchers to investigate topics that may be hard to study because of ethical or logistical concerns. Participants are presented with short stories…