Technical difficulties and other unforeseen events occasionally lead to incomplete data on educational tests, which necessitates the reporting of imputed scores to some examinees. While there exist several approaches for reporting imputed scores, there is a lack of any guidance on the reporting of the uncertainty of imputed scores. In this paper,…

The import or force of the result of a statistical test has long been portrayed as consistent with deductive reasoning. The simplest form of deductive argument has a first premise with conditional form, such as p[right arrow]q, which means that "if p is true, then q must be true." Given the first premise, one can either affirm or deny…

Descriptions of durational relations can be ambiguous, for example, the description "one meeting happened during another" could mean that one meeting started before the other ended, or it could mean that the meetings started and ended simultaneously. A recent theory posits that people mentally simulate descriptions of durational events…

Since 2018, institutions of higher education have been aware of the "enrollment cliff" which refers to expected declines in future enrollment. This paper attempts to describe how prepared institutions in Ohio are for this future by looking at trends leading up to the anticipated decline. Using IPEDS data from 2012-2022, we analyze trends…

When learning with self-testing alone, will a learner make inferences between the tested items? This study examines whether self-testing's benefits extend beyond isolated facts to support broader connections between the facts. Comparing self-testing to self-explanation (a strategy known to facilitate inferential learning), we find that while…

Large language models (LLMs) provide cost-effective but possibly inaccurate predictions of human behavior. Despite growing evidence that predicted and observed behavior are often not "interchangeable," there is limited guidance on using LLMs to obtain valid estimates of causal effects and other parameters. We argue that LLM predictions…

Social science theories often postulate systems of causal relationships among variables, which are commonly represented using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). As non-parametric causal models, DAGs require no assumptions about the functional form of the hypothesized relationships. Nevertheless, to simplify empirical evaluation, researchers typically…

Retrospective confidence refers to the phenomenological experience of the level of certainty that retrieved information is, in fact, correct. Retrospective confidence judgments are examined across a range of sub-disciplines in psychology from perception to memory research, and in education and legal applications. This paper focuses on…

There are over one million school-age children in Missouri, and we estimate 61,000 (6% of all school-age children) are homeschooled. Missouri is one of 29 states that does not require homeschooling to be reported. Using methods that can be replicated elsewhere with publicly available data, we test three approaches to estimating homeschool…

Parallel process latent growth curve mediation models (PP-LGCMMs) are frequently used to longitudinally investigate the mediation effects of treatment on the level and change of outcome through the level and change of mediator. An important but often violated assumption in empirical PP-LGCMM analysis is the absence of omitted confounders of the…

Relying on multiple documents to answer questions is becoming common for both academic and personal inquiry tasks. These tasks often require students to explain phenomena by taking various causal factors that are mentioned separately in different documents and integrating them into a coherent multi-causal explanation of some phenomena. However,…

Parallel process latent growth curve mediation models (PP-LGCMMs) are frequently used to longitudinally investigate the mediation effects of treatment on the level and change of outcome through the level and change of mediator. An important but often violated assumption in empirical PP-LGCMM analysis is the absence of omitted confounders of the…

This paper presents a model of recurrent multinomial sequences. Though there exists a quite considerable literature on modeling autocorrelation in numerical data and sequences of categorical outcomes, there is currently no systematic method of modeling patterns of recurrence in categorical sequences. This paper develops a means of discovering…

Purpose: Multisite mediation studies are a cornerstone in mapping out developmental processes because they probe the mechanisms of a treatment while creating key opportunities to learn from and about variation in those mechanisms across sites. Despite the prevalence of multisite studies, a significant gap in the literature is how to plan such…

The estimation of RxC ecological inference contingency tables from aggregate data is one of the most salient and challenging problems in the field of quantitative social sciences, with major solutions proposed from both the ecological regression and the mathematical programming frameworks. In recent decades, there has been a drive to find…