Mandatory drug testing of workers will create problems due to the low predictive ability of urinalysis. The predictive value of drug testing in populations of low drug incidence is illustrated using Bayes' Theorem. (MT)

Diagnostic hit rates for the Diagnostic Inventory of Personality and Symptoms were compared to diagnosis by psychiatrists of the same patients. The Probability Scale employing Bayesian concepts and base rates correctly classified 70% of the patients and was more accurate by far than the other two methods used. (Author/ABB)

This paper reviews various procedures for constructing an interval for an individual's true score given the assumption that errors of measurement are distributed as binomial. This paper also presents two general interval estimation procedures (i.e., normal approximation and endpoints conversion methods) for an individual's true scale score;…

Coefficient alpha is a simple and very useful index of test reliability that is widely used in educational and psychological measurement. Classical statistical inference for coefficient alpha is well developed. This paper presents two methods for Bayesian statistical inference for a single sample alpha coefficient. An approximate analytic method…

In the case of dichotomous decisions, the total set of all assumptions/specifications for which the decision would have been the same is the robustness region. Inspection of this (data-dependent) region is a form of sensitivity analysis which may lead to improved decision making. (Author/BW)

Used a simulation to investigate the applicability to computerized adaptive test data of a differential item functioning (DIF) analysis method. Results show the performance of this empirical Bayes enhancement of the Mantel Haenszel DIF analysis method to be quite promising. (SLD)

A framework is described for exploiting auxiliary information about test items within item response theory models to enhance parameter estimates. The method also provides diagnostic information about items' operating characteristics. An empirical Bayesian estimation of Rasch item difficulty is used to illustrate the principles involved. (TJH)

A distinction is made between statistics based on scientific theory and theory-free statistics. This distinction is discussed in the contexts of hypothesis testing, Bayesian inference, a priori planned contrasts, a new simple computational method, and alternative data interpretations. (TJH)

Proposes a parametric approach that involves a modification of standard Item Response Theory models that explicitly accounts for the nesting of items within the same testlets and that can be applied to multiple-choice sections comprising a mixture of independent items and testlets. (Author/SLD)

Recently, economists have developed methods for structural estimation of auction models. Many researchers object to these methods because they find the strict rationality assumptions to be implausible. Using bid data from first-price auction experiments, we estimate four alternative structural models: (1) risk-neutral Bayes-Nash, (2) risk-averse…

The use of Bayes' formula is applied to the biological problem of pedigree analysis to show that the Bayes' formula and non-Bayesian or "classical" methods of probability calculation give different answers. First year college students of biology can be introduced to the Bayesian statistics.

The Dirac delta function has been used successfully in mathematical physics for many years. The purpose of this article is to bring attention to several useful applications of this function in mathematical statistics. Some of these applications include a unified representation of the distribution of a function (or functions) of one or several…

Empirical analysis requires researchers to choose which variables to use as controls in their models. Theory should dictate this choice, yet often in social science there are several theories that may suggest the inclusion or exclusion of certain variables as controls. The result of this is that researchers may use different variables in their…

In their comment on D. Trafimow, M. D. Lee and E. Wagenmakers argued that the requisite probabilities to use in Bayes's theorem can always be found. In the present reply, the author asserts that M. D. Lee and E. Wagenmakers use a problematic assumption and that finding the requisite probabilities is not straightforward. After describing the…