A general approach is proposed for modeling the structure of a two-way contingency table, and for drawing inferences about the marginal and interaction effects, cell parameters, and conditional probabilities. The prior distribution expresses uncertainty in a simple reduced model, in particular the independence model. The posterior estimates of the…

A decision-theoretic procedure is outlined which provides a framework within which Bayesian statistical methods can be employed with criterion-referenced tests to improve the quality of decision making in objectives based instructional programs. (Author/DEP)

The Computer-Assisted Data Analysis (CADA) Monitor is a set of conversational-language interactive computer programs that permit relatively inexperienced persons to perform relatively complex statistical data analysis. The Monitor leads the user through an analysis on a step-by-step basis providing the necessary direction, information, and…

This study examined the appropriateness of the use of criterion referenced tests as a means of controlling an individual student's advancement to the next level of instruction or retention in the current unit in the PLATO Air Force Base Computer-Based Education project at Chanute. The study was also concerned with program evaluation, which…

This paper describes two procedures for making binary classification decisions using tailored testing: the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) and a Bayesian decision procedure. The first procedure described, the SPRT, was developed by Wald for quality control work. It has not been widely applied for testing applications because the…

The issues of treatment assignment is ordinarily dealt with within the framework of testing aptitude treatment interaction (ATI) hypothesis. ATI research mostly uses linear regression techniques, and an ATI exists when the aptitude treatment (AT) regression lines cross each other within the relevant interval of the aptitude variable. Consistent…

The philosophy and assumptions of the Multi-Attribute Utility-Bayesian Decision Theoretic model (MAUT-Bayesian model) are presented. The evaluator uses the MAUT-Bayesian model along with the knowledge of the decision-maker's, and perhaps the evaluator's own values to decide what data should be collected. Appropriate data are presented to the…

A multiparameter, programmable model was developed to examine the interactive influence of certain parameters on the probability of deciding that an examinee had attained a specified degree of mastery. It was applied within the simulated context of performance testing of military trainees. These parameters included: (1) the number of assumed…

A computer simulation of Bayes' Theorem was conducted in order to determine the probability that an examinee was a master conditional upon his test score. The inputs were: number of mastery states assumed, test length, prior expectation of masters in the examinee population, and conditional probability of a master getting a randomly selected test…

In this paper a Bayesian procedure is developed for the simultaneous estimation of the reading ability and difficulty parameters which are assumed to be factors in reading errors by the multiplicative Poisson Model. According to several criteria, the Bayesian estimates are better than comparable maximum likelihood estimates. (Author/JAZ)

Advantages and disadvantages of joint maximum likelihood, marginal maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods of parameter estimation in item response theory are discussed and compared. (Author)

Olae is a computer system for assessing student knowledge of physics, and Newtonian mechanics in particular, using performance data collected while students solve complex problems. Although originally designed as a stand-alone system, it has also been used as part of the Andes intelligent tutoring system. Like many other performance assessment…

Investigated the role of disconfirming behavioral information and the limits on social class schema effects. Using a Bayesian model of social perception, it was found that unambiguous, relevant stimulus information influenced judgments. Although social class information did not affect relevant stimulus information, it did sway judgments in…

A model developed by G. Rasch that assumes scores on some attainment tests can be realizations of a Poisson process is explained and expanded by assuming a prior distribution, with fixed but unknown parameters, for the subject parameters. How additional between-subject and within-subject factors can be incorporated is discussed. (SLD)

The economic utility of the following 5 weighting methods for evaluating consumer loan applications was determined using a sample of 443 loans: (1) unit; (2) weighted application blank; (3) chi square; (4) Bayes; and (5) regression. The unit and weighted application blank procedures were the best approaches. (SLD)