I study the impact of novel game manipulations on user engagement using principled computational methods. Maximizing user engagement is important because it results in more profitable games in the commercial arena and better learning outcomes in the educational arena. It is then perhaps unsurprising that the study of user engagement is well…

A longstanding concern about admissions to higher education is the underprediction of female academic performance by admission test scores. One explanation for these findings is selection system bias, that is, not all relevant KSAOs that are related to academic performance and gender are included in the prediction model. One solution to this…

Algorithms for approximate Bayesian inference, such as those based on sampling (i.e., Monte Carlo methods), provide a natural source of models of how people may deal with uncertainty with limited cognitive resources. Here, we consider the idea that individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC) may be usefully modeled in terms of the…

This study examined the use of Bayesian analysis methods for the estimation of item parameters in a two-parameter logistic item response theory model. Using simulated data under various design conditions with both informative and non-informative priors, the parameter recovery of Bayesian analysis methods were examined. Overall results showed that…

Piecewise mixed-effects models are useful for analyzing longitudinal educational and psychological data sets to model segmented change over time. These models offer an attractive alternative to commonly used quadratic and higher-order polynomial models because the coefficients obtained from fitting the model have meaningful substantive…

With this article, we propose using a Bayesian multilevel latent class (BMLC; or mixture) model for the multiple imputation of nested categorical data. Unlike recently developed methods that can only pick up associations between pairs of variables, the multilevel mixture model we propose is flexible enough to automatically deal with complex…

Throughout the different phases of a drug development program, randomized trials are used to establish the tolerability, safety and efficacy of a candidate drug. At each stage one aims to optimize the design of future studies by extrapolation from the available evidence at the time. This includes collected trial data and relevant external data.…

A multidimensional Bayesian item response model is proposed for modeling item position effects. The first dimension corresponds to the ability that is to be measured; the second dimension represents a factor that allows for individual differences in item position effects called persistence. This model allows for nonlinear item position effects on…

In light of the replication crisis in psychology, null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and "p"-values have been heavily criticized and various alternatives have been proposed, ranging from slight modifications of the current paradigm to banning "p"-values from journals. Since the physics education research community…

Purpose: The paper aims to present a new two stage local causal learning algorithm -- HEISA. In the first stage, the algorithm discoveries the subset of features that better explains a target variable. During the second stage, computes the causal effect, using partial correlation, of each feature of the selected subset. Using this new algorithm,…

The purpose of this study was to conduct a conceptual replication of Pendergast et al.'s (2018) study that examined the diagnostic accuracy of a nomogram procedure, also known as a naive Bayesian approach. The specific naive Bayesian approach combined academic and social-emotional and behavioral (SEB) screening data to predict student performance…

We compared the Wechsler scores of individuals with twice-exceptionality (2e) and giftedness using a three-level Bayesian meta-analysis. Ninety-five effect sizes were calculated from 15 studies (n = 2,106). Results show that individuals with 2e who have learning disabilities perform lower than individuals with giftedness in Full-Scale Intelligence…

Changepoints are abrupt variations in a sequence of data in statistical inference. In educational and psychological assessments, it is pivotal to properly differentiate examinees' aberrant behaviors from solution behavior to ensure test reliability and validity. In this paper, we propose a sequential Bayesian changepoint detection algorithm to…

The chiropractic clinical competency examination uses groups of items that are integrated by a common case vignette. The nature of the vignette items violates the assumption of local independence for items nested within a vignette. This study examines via simulation a new algorithmic approach for addressing the local independence violation problem…

Background: Model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) is increasingly used to inform drug-development decisions by synthesising results from multiple studies to estimate treatment, dose-response, and time-course characteristics. Network meta-analysis (NMA) is used in Health Technology Appraisals for simultaneously comparing effects of multiple treatments,…