Objective: Many children with conduct disorder develop life-course persistent antisocial behavior; however, other children exhibit childhood-limited or adolescence-limited conduct disorder symptoms and escape poor adult outcomes. Prospective prediction of long-term prognosis in pediatric and adolescent clinical settings is difficult. Improved…

Inference, or decision making, is seen in curriculum documents as the final step in a statistical investigation. For a formal statistical enquiry this may be associated with sophisticated tests involving probability distributions. For young students without the mathematical background to perform such tests, it is still possible to draw informal…

The authors examined the relationship between an individual's human capital profile--knowledge, skills, abilities, and other characteristics--and compensation before and after a job loss. The results of this study show that the types of human capital that predicted pre-job-loss salary differ from the types that predict reemployment salary. The…

For the thirty-seventh year, the Research and Theory Division and the Division of Instructional Design of the Association for Educational Communications and Technology (AECT) sponsored the publication of these Proceedings. Papers published in this volume were presented at the annual AECT Convention in Jacksonville, Florida. This year's Proceedings…

A study was conducted to begin a process of validating hypothesized causes of local item dependence (LID) in large-scale performance assessments. Data for the study are item level scores from 26 science tasks from the 1993 edition of the Maryland School Performance Assessment Program. Causes of high LID were hypothesized from studies by Ferrara et…

Discriminant analysis (DA) is a multivariate technique concerned with either prediction/classification (predictive discriminant analysis) or distinguishing among groups (descriptive discriminant analysis). DA has many potential applications in gifted education research, including investigation of identification procedures in order to obtain…

Response generative modeling (RGM) is an approach to psychological measurement that involves a "grammar" capable of assigning a psychometric description to every item in a universe of items and is capable of generating all the items in that universe. The article discusses the rationale behind RMG and its roots, explores how it relates to…

This study examines the predictability of Graduate Record Examinations (GRE) reading item difficulty (equated delta) for the three major reading item types: main idea, inference, and explicit statement items. Each item type is analyzed separately, using 110 GRE reading passages and their associated 244 reading items; selective analyses of 285…

Prediction of the difficulty (equated delta) of a large sample (n=213) of reading comprehension items from the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) was studied using main idea, inference, and supporting statement items. A related purpose was to examine whether text and text-related variables play a significant role in predicting item…

This directory lists employees of the federal government who are involved in forecasting for policy formation and trend prediction purposes. Job title, agency, business address, phone or e-mail number, and specialty areas are listed for each employee. Employees are listed for the following agencies: (1) Bureau of the Census; (2) Bureau of Economic…

Evaluation is so paramount in students' lives that researchers have found that, for many students, one's self-worth is intricately tied to one's performance. Self-handicapping is a strategy that may be used to maintain one's self-worth. This anticipatory tactic typically involves the use of procrastination; by procrastinating, one clouds the…

A study examined the predictive validity of two methods of prior knowledge assessment: free association and prediction. Subjects, 72 sixth graders from suburban public and private schools, were divided into four groups: standard free association; standard free association plus prediction; definitional free association; and definitional free…

Similarity plays a central role in cognitive theories. Research has demonstrated that the similarity of a pair increases with its commonalities and decreases with its differences. These common and distinctive elements can take the form of parts of objects, relations between parts of properties of whole objects. Previous work has been unable to…

Setting performance standards on constructed-response assessments involving polytomously scored exercises presents a challenge for measurement practitioners. Some standard setting methods designed for use with multiple-choice, dichotomously scored assessments entail aggregating item performance estimates across a panel of experts. For these items,…

The concept of authenticity in foreign language pedagogy is discussed with particular reference to the methodology of instructing through the medium of authentic texts. It is suggested that the use of authentic texts in a classroom setting actually deauthenticates those elements that made the texts originally authentic; i.e., placing them in a…