Clinicians need to know the likelihood of a condition given a positive or negative diagnostic test. In this study a Bayesian analysis of the Clinical Behavior Checklist for Persons with Intellectual Disabilities (CBCPID) to predict depression in people with intellectual disability was conducted. The CBCPID was administered to 92 adults with…

We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven…

Many experiments have shown that the human visual system makes extensive use of contextual information for facilitating object search in natural scenes. However, the question of how to formally model contextual influences is still open. On the basis of a Bayesian framework, the authors present an original approach of attentional guidance by global…

Model checking in item response theory (IRT) is an underdeveloped area. There is no universally accepted tool for checking IRT models. The posterior predictive model-checking method is a popular Bayesian model-checking tool because it has intuitive appeal, is simple to apply, has a strong theoretical basis, and can provide graphical or numerical…

Explicit information-seeking actions are needed to evaluate alternative actions in problem-solving tasks. Information-seeking costs are often traded off against the utility of information. We present three experiments that show how subjects adapt to the cost and information structures of environments in a map-navigation task. We found that…

Researchers often have one or more theories or expectations with respect to the outcome of their empirical research. When researchers talk about the expected relations between variables if a certain theory is correct, their statements are often in terms of one or more parameters expected to be larger or smaller than one or more other parameters.…

In this article, the author comments on an article by Dunn, Kadane, and Garrow, "Comparing Harm Done by Mobility and Class Absence: Missing Students and Missing Data." He believes the research reported in that article should serve as a model for future applications of Bayesian methods in important educational research problems. The author lauds…

A Bayesian approach is developed for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with nonignorable missing data. The nonignorable missingness mechanism is specified by a logistic regression model. A hybrid algorithm that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to produce the joint Bayesian estimates of…

Using detailed administrative data for the public K-12 schools of North Carolina, we measure racial segregation in its public schools. With data for the 2005-2006 school year, we update previously published calculations that measure segregation by unevenness in racial enrollment patterns, both between schools and within schools. We find that…

Over the course of instruction, instructors generally collect a great deal of information about each student. Integrating that information intelligently requires models for how a student's proficiency changes over time. Armed with such models, instructors can "filter" the data--more accurately estimate the student's current proficiency…

The 10th International Conference on Educational Data Mining (EDM 2017) is held under the auspices of the International Educational Data Mining Society at the Optics Velley Kingdom Plaza Hotel, Wuhan, Hubei Province, in China. This years conference features two invited talks by: Dr. Jie Tang, Associate Professor with the Department of Computer…

The Secondary School Curriculum and Staffing Survey (SSCSS) has been carried out every four to six years since 1965. The 2007 survey was carried out by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER), on behalf of the Department for Children, Schools and Families (DCSF). The aim of this survey was to create a picture of the secondary…

Probability-based inference in complex networks of interdependent variables is an active topic in statistical research, spurred by such diverse applications as forecasting, pedigree analysis, troubleshooting, and medical diagnosis. This paper concerns the role of Bayesian inference networks for updating student models in intelligent tutoring…

Expected a posteriori has a number of advantages over maximum likelihood estimation or maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation methods. These include ability estimates (thetas) for all response patterns, less regression towards the mean than MAP ability estimates, and a lower average squared error. R. D. Bock and R. J. Mislevy (1982) state that the…

In a variable-length adaptive test with a stopping rule that relied on the asymptotic standard error of measurement of the examinee's estimated true score, M. S. Stocking (1987) discovered that it was sufficient to know the examinee's true score and the number of items administered to predict with some accuracy whether an examinee's true score was…