Extended the use of a beta prior in trait estimation to the maximum expected a posteriori (MAP) method of Bayesian estimation. This new method, essentially unbiased MAP, was compared with MAP, essentially unbiased expected a posteriori, weighted likelihood, and maximum-likelihood estimation methods. The new method significantly reduced bias in…

Proposes a procedure for empirical initialization of the trait (theta) estimator in adaptive testing that is based on the statistical relation between theta and background variables known prior to test administration. Illustrates the procedure for an adaptive version of a test from the Dutch General Aptitude Battery. (SLD)

This study answered questions about which faculty come to use technology in their teaching and used a novel statistical analysis to develop a model that captures the primary factors influencing faculty technology use. It used a sample of 16,914 faculty within the 2004 National Study of Postsecondary Faculty to explore explanations for faculty…

There is increased interest in value-added models relying on longitudinal student-level test score data to isolate teachers' contributions to student achievement. The complex linkage of students to teachers as students progress through grades poses both substantive and computational challenges. This article introduces a multivariate Bayesian…

This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

The accuracy of estimation procedures in item response theory was studied using Monte Carlo methods and varying sample size, number of subjects, and distribution of ability parameters for: (1) joint maximum likelihood as implemented in the computer program LOGIST; (2) marginal maximum likelihood; and (3) marginal Bayesian procedures as implemented…

A two-level regression model is imposed on the ability parameters in an item response theory (IRT) model. The advantage of using latent rather than observed scores as dependent variables of a multilevel model is that this offers the possibility of separating the influence of item difficulty and ability level and modeling response variation and…

The Rule Space Model, a cognitive error diagnostic methodology, is discussed, and the philosophy behind it is related to the question of what really determines item response curves. The Rule Space approach integrates Item Response Theory and the algebraic theory of databases. An application of Graph Theory is introduced as a way to acquire a list…

The classification problem in educational testing is a decision problem. One must assign subjects to one of several available treatments on the basis of test scores, where the success of each treatment is measured by a different criterion. Examples of classification decisions include individualized instruction, counseling, and clinical settings.…

The applicability is explored of the Bayesian random-effect analysis of variance (ANOVA) model developed by G. C. Tiao and W. Y. Tan (1966) and a method suggested by H. K. Suen and P. S. Lee (1987) for the generalizability analysis of autocorrelated data. According to Tiao and Tan, if time series data could be described as a first-order…

This final report of a National Institute of Education project explores Bayesian statistical analysis as a paradigm for educational impact studies, particularly studies on the education of the disadvantaged. The position of the report is that much of what is wrong with educational research can be attributed to the use of an inappropriate model for…

In the methods and approaches developed for estimating the operating characteristics of the discrete item responses, the maximum likelihood estimate of the examinee based upon the "Old Test" has an important role. When Old Test does not provide a sufficient amount of test information for the upper and lower part of the ability interval,…

The use of subjective probability as a theoretical model for enrollment forecasting is proposed, and the results of an application of subjective probability to enrollment forecasting at the University of Toledo are reported. Subjective probability can be used as an enrollment forecasting technique for both headcount and full-time equivalent using…

A system of computer-assisted data analysis (CADA) was developed at the University of Iowa to handle the mechanical, arithmetical and computational tasks associated with Bayesian statistical analysis. The original programs were subsequently expanded and a CADA monitor constructed to aid their use; a search was then undertaken to find a means of…