Surveys of (n=200 in 5 schools) secondary school students' preconceptions of probability found that, although these students had had no formal instruction in probability, they did have some notion of the topic. Includes survey. (Author/MKR)

This paper demonstrates that two major tests for two-by-two tables, Fisher's exact and Pearson's chi-square tests, are highly related from a Bayesian perspective. A formal similarity is demonstrated in small samples, and reasons for the relationship are discussed. (SLD)

A stochastic judgment model (SJM) is presented as a framework for addressing issues in statement verification and probability judgment. Results of 5 experiments with 264 undergraduates support the validity of the model and provide new information that is interpreted in terms of the SJM. (SLD)

Suggests a probabilistic method to compute the term relationships from relevance information, which complements the studies on a nonprobabilistic technique called pseudo-classification. A quadratic ranking function is derived by incorporating the term-by-term relationships. Procedures for estimating the required parameters are provided by…

Analysis of data from 2,542 respondents in the 1988 Displaced Workers Survey assessed the effects of written advance notice of plant closings on reemployment and earnings. Results suggest that notification was effective in reducing earnings losses and the probability of unemployment only when received two months before the plant closing. (SK)

Presents a mathematics problem on probability and matrices placed in a context with insects. Provides an overview, prerequisites, materials needed, and worksheets. (ASK)

Presents several classroom demonstrations, based on well-known statistical ideas, that have sparked student involvement in introductory undergraduate courses in probability and statistics. Contains descriptions of 10 demonstrations. (SLD)

Discusses an old and quite surprising musical example that provides good challenges in probability theory ranging from practical routine computations to fundamental and philosophical ones, and extended with the engineering design task of generating random numbers. (ASK)

Points out the high percentage of African-American boys that believe that they can make a living playing professional sports and presents an activity that addresses the probability of a student athlete becoming a professional athlete. (YDS)

Reports on a study in which anchoring probability situations that are conceptually analogous to misconception-prone target probability situations were generated and tested with secondary mathematics students. Reports that a follow up test showed that 65% of the reconstructed knowledge was retained after six months. (Author/MM)

Tackles a tricky problem of probability based on the well-known carnival game Chuck-a-Luck which, at first glance, appears to favor the bettor. Presents an activity in which students correct a common fallacy in probabilistic reasoning and extend play to a gambler's ruin analysis. (Author/ASK)

Objective: To investigate links between girls' violent behavior, pubertal timing, and neighborhood characteristics. Method: A total of 501 Hispanic, black, and white adolescent girls and their parents were interviewed twice over a 3-year period (1995-1998). Violent behavior was assessed using the Self-Report of Offending Scale and pubertal timing…

Purpose: The purpose of this work was to, among frail dually eligible older adults, determine risk factors for the likelihood of using Medicare home health and Medicaid home health services and to, among service users, determine correlates of Medicare home health, Medicaid home health, and Medicaid waiver service expenditures. Design and Methods:…

Recent research suggests that phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (the number of words phonologically similar to a given word) influence spoken language processing and acquisition across the lifespan in both normal and clinical populations. The majority of research in this area has…

Children's immediate aggressive responding to exposure to marital conflict was examined. Participants were 108 families with 8- to 16-year-old children (53 boys, 55 girls), with diary records of children's reactions to marital conflict in the home completed by 103 mothers (n = 578 records) and 95 fathers (n = 377 records) during a 15-day period.…