Prior research has demonstrated the importance of forecasting to creative problem-solving performance. Less is known about how case analysis and outcome valence impact forecasting performance. In this study, 266 participants were asked to assume the role of a Marketing Director of a clothing company and develop a marketing campaign for entering a…

Demand planning plays a very strategic role in improving the performance of every business, as the planning for a whole lot of other activities depends on the accuracy and validity of this exercise. The field of agriculture is not an exception; demand forecasting plays an important role in this area also, where a farmer can plan for the crop…

Many sociological theories make critically different macropredictions when their microassumptions are implemented stochastically rather than deterministically. Deviations from individuals' behavioral patterns described by microtheories can spark cascades that change macrooutcomes, even when deviations are rare and random. With two experiments, we…

Planning course study is critical to facilitate strategic intervention in education. As a significant basis of planning course study, student performance prediction aims to utilize students existing relevant information to predict their future learning performance including course grades, course failure, grade point average, etc. We target course…

Pre-service mathematics teachers (PSTs) enter university with diverse beliefs and understandings of teaching and learning; yet, they may not be aware of how these conceptions are related to their epistemological and efficacy beliefs. This study explored how the mathematical beliefs, mathematics self-efficacy, and mathematics teaching efficacy of…

Attrition in longitudinal studies is a major threat to the representativeness of the data and the generalizability of the findings. Typical approaches to address systematic nonresponse are either expensive and unsatisfactory (e.g., oversampling) or rely on the unrealistic assumption of data missing at random (e.g., multiple imputation). Thus,…

This study investigated how well students differentiate their responses' accuracies (metacognitive monitoring) and estimate their test scores beyond counting--and counting on--the number of correct responses alone. Monitoring abilities of 2832 sixth-graders (1410 male and 1422 female native in Turkish) at an 11-item Program for International…

Students' self-determined motivation (acting out of interest, curiosity, and abiding values) is associated with higher academic well-being, persistence, and achievement. Self-determination theory posits that self-determined motivation is dependent on the satisfaction of three psychological needs (relatedness, competence, and autonomy), which are…

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate and evaluate the use of "Bayesian dynamic borrowing"(Viele et al, in Pharm Stat 13:41-54, 2014) as a means of systematically utilizing historical information with specific applications to large-scale educational assessments. Dynamic borrowing via Bayesian hierarchical models is a special case…

The exploration/exploitation trade-off (EE trade-off) describes how, when faced with several competing alternatives, decision-makers must often choose between a known good alternative (exploitation) and one or more unknown but potentially more rewarding alternatives (exploration). Prevailing theory on how humans perform the EE trade-off states…

Predictive power of many behavioral measures relies on high test-retest reliability, whereby a measure yields similar data when repeated measure administration occurs at spaced-out intervals. However, major environmental disruptions between measure administration may impact test-retest reliability. The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused…

Previous studies have proposed many indicators to assess the effect of student engagement in learning and academic achievement but have not yet been clearly articulated. In addition, while student engagement tracking systems have been designed, they rely on the log data but not on performance data. This paper presents results of a non-machine…

This study aims to analyse the predictiveness of the emotion socialization behaviours of the mothers of 6-year-old children on the children's attachment levels. The study group of this descriptive research designed with the screening model, one of the quantitative research methods, included 143 pairs of mothers and 60- to 72-month-old…

Prediction is one characteristic of the human mind. But what does it mean to say the mind is a "prediction machine" and "inherently forward looking" as is frequently claimed? In natural languages, many contexts are not easily predictable in a forward fashion. In English, for example, many frequent verbs do not carry unique…

In the current era of more extreme political and religious views coming into the mainstream, this paper investigates whether party affiliation is associated with the concept of religious morality more than political ideology. To answer this research question, we construct an empirical scale of religious morality based on data from opinion polls,…